What is The AES Corporation (AES) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

The AES Corporation (AES) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is The AES Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

The AES Corporation operates in the Utilities sector (Utilities - Diversified) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is The AES Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

The AES Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor The AES Corporation (AES) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits The AES Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAES

AES

The AES CorporationUtilities / Utilities - DiversifiedINTACT

The AES Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a power generation and utility company. It operates through four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies. The company owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries; owns and/or operates utilities to generate or purchase, distribute, transmit, and sell electricity to end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental sectors; and generates and sells electricity on the wholesale market, as well as investments in technologies to support leading-edge greener energy solutions. It uses various fuels and technologies to generate electricity, such as solar, hydro, wind, coal, and gas, as well as renewables comprising energy storage and landfill gas. The company owns and/or operates a generation portfolio of approximately 34,740 megawatts and distributes power to 2.7 million customers. The company operates in the United States, Chile, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Mexico, Bulgaria, Panama, Colombia, Argentina, Vietnam, Jordan, Puerto Rico, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Applied Energy Services, Inc. and changed its name to The AES Corporation in April 2000. The AES Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Arlington, Virginia.

Share Price

$14.79

52W: $12.33 - $17.65

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

5.5x

ROIC

14%

Operating Margin

18.7%

FCF Yield

-29.3%

Debt / Equity

2.57x

Piotroski Score

3/9

Altman Z-Score

3.69

Market Cap

$10.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0 Revised Graham ($55.07) Graham Number ($20.40)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$14.79

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$100M

$100M$-3,089M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)9.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$31,000M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$1.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$1.3B

Implied Enterprise Value

$2.2B

Implied Equity Value

$-28.8B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$109	$119	$131	$143	$156	$163	$170	$178	$186	$194
Present Value (PV)	$100	$101	$101	$101	$101	$97	$93	$89	$86	$82

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+27.5% MoS

$20.40

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $2.67BVPS: $6.93

Revised Graham Formula+73.1% MoS

$55.07

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings-27.9% Yield

$-4.12 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $-2.9BYield: -27.9%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

0.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $14.79, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AES with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for The AES Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 18.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: The AES Corporation (AES) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for The AES Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, The AES Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $14.79. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $20.40.