What is Apple Inc. (AAPL) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Apple Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Apple Inc. operates in the Technology sector (Consumer Electronics) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Apple Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Apple Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Apple Inc. (AAPL) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Apple Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAAPL

AAPL

Apple Inc.Technology / Consumer ElectronicsINTACT

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories, including Apple Watch, AirPods, Beats products, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV 4K, HomePod, and Apple HomeView, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides advertising services comprising third-party licensing arrangements and own advertising platforms; AppleCare and cloud services; and payment services, including Apple Card and Apple Pay. In addition, the company operates App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts. Further, it provides digital content through subscription-based services, including Apple Arcade, a game service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience; Apple News+, a news and magazine service; and Apple TV, which offers original content and live sports. The company sells its products and resells third-party products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; its services through its various service platforms; and third-party cellular network carriers and other resellers. It serves consumer, small and mid-sized business, education, enterprise, and government markets. The company operates in North and South America, European countries, India, the Middle East, Africa, China mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and rest of Asia. The company was formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc. and changed its name to Apple Inc. in January 2007. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

Share Price

$343.90

52W: $243.42 - $355.38

DCF Fair Value

$208.00

-65.3% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

38.3x

ROIC

23.3%

Operating Margin

31.1%

FCF Yield

2.1%

Debt / Equity

0.84x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

2.98

Market Cap

$4997.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($208.00)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$208.00

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$156.00

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($208.00) 25% MOS Buy Target ($156.00) Revised Graham ($261.77) Graham Number ($39.48)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$343.90

DCF Fair Value

$207.72

-65.6% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$105,658M

$100M$105,658M (Reported)$264,145M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)15.5%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$37,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$1253.7B

PV of Terminal Value

$1802.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$3056.4B

Implied Equity Value

$3018.6B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$122,035	$140,950	$162,798	$188,031	$217,176	$226,949	$237,162	$247,834	$258,987	$270,641
Present Value (PV)	$111,959	$118,635	$125,710	$133,206	$141,150	$135,322	$129,736	$124,380	$119,245	$114,322

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-771.3% Premium

$39.47

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $8.98BVPS: $7.71

Revised Graham Formula-31.4% Premium

$261.77

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2% Yield

$6.91 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $100.4BYield: 2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

17.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $343.90, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 17.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AAPL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Apple Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 31.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Apple Inc. (AAPL) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Apple Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Apple Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $208.00 per share compared to its current market price of $343.90. This represents an estimated 65.3% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $39.48.