What is Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Atmos Energy Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Atmos Energy Corporation operates in the Utilities sector (Utilities - Regulated Gas) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Atmos Energy Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Atmos Energy Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Atmos Energy Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksATO

ATO

Atmos Energy CorporationUtilities / Utilities - Regulated GasINTACT

Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage. The Distribution segment is involved in the regulated natural gas distribution and related sales operations in eight states. This segment distributes natural gas to approximately 3.4 million residential, commercial, public authority, and industrial customers; and owned 76,000 miles of underground distribution and transmission mains. The Pipeline and Storage segment engages in the pipeline and storage operations. This segment transports natural gas for third parties and manages five underground storage facilities in Texas; provides ancillary services customary to the pipeline industry, including parking arrangements, lending, and inventory sales; and owned 5,700 miles of gas transmission lines. Atmos Energy Corporation was founded in 1906 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

Share Price

$163.19

52W: $160.1 - $192.51

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

19.5x

ROIC

27.9%

Operating Margin

37.2%

FCF Yield

-8.1%

Debt / Equity

0.68x

Piotroski Score

5/9

Altman Z-Score

2.76

Market Cap

$27.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0 Revised Graham ($279.95) Graham Number ($130.56)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$163.19

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$100M

$100M$-2,221M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$9,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$1.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$1.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$3.2B

Implied Equity Value

$-6.6B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$118	$139	$164	$194	$229	$239	$250	$261	$273	$285
Present Value (PV)	$108	$117	$127	$137	$149	$143	$137	$131	$126	$120

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-25% Premium

$130.55

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $8.39BVPS: $90.29

Revised Graham Formula+41.7% MoS

$279.95

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings-7.6% Yield

$-12.48 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $-2.1BYield: -7.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

0.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $163.19, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ATO with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Atmos Energy Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 37.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Atmos Energy Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Atmos Energy Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $163.19. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $130.56.