What is American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is American Water Works Company, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

American Water Works Company, Inc. operates in the Utilities sector (Utilities - Regulated Water) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is American Water Works Company, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

American Water Works Company, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits American Water Works Company, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAWK

AWK

American Water Works Company, IUtilities / Utilities - Regulated WaterINTACT

American Water Works Company, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides water and wastewater services in the United States. It offers water and wastewater services on military installations; and undertakes contracts with municipal customers, primarily to operate and manage water and wastewater facilities, as well as offers other related services. The company also operates approximately 80 surface water treatment plants; 520 groundwater treatment plants; 170 wastewater treatment plants; 55,000 miles of transmission, distribution, and collection mains and pipes; 1,200 groundwater wells; 1,800 water and wastewater pumping stations; 1,100 treated water storage facilities; and 75 dams. In addition, it offers water and wastewater services to 14 states serving approximately 3.6 million active customers. The company serves residential customers; commercial customers, including food and beverage providers, commercial property developers and proprietors, and energy suppliers; fire service and private fire customers; industrial customers, such as large-scale manufacturers, mining, and production operations; public authorities comprising government buildings and other public sector facilities, such as schools and universities; and other utilities and community water and wastewater systems. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Camden, New Jersey.

Share Price

$137.69

52W: $120.57 - $145.64

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

23.8x

ROIC

30.5%

Operating Margin

40.7%

FCF Yield

-6.5%

Debt / Equity

1.38x

Piotroski Score

4/9

Altman Z-Score

2.26

Market Cap

$27.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0 Revised Graham ($203.99) Graham Number ($87.37)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$137.69

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$100M

$100M$-1,785M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$15,900M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$1.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$1.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$3.2B

Implied Equity Value

$-12.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$118	$139	$164	$194	$229	$239	$250	$261	$273	$285
Present Value (PV)	$108	$117	$127	$137	$149	$143	$137	$131	$126	$120

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-57.6% Premium

$87.37

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $5.78BVPS: $58.70

Revised Graham Formula+32.5% MoS

$203.99

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings-6.2% Yield

$-8.52 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $-1.7BYield: -6.2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

0.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $137.69, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AWK with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for American Water Works Company, I. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 40.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: American Water Works Company, I (AWK) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for American Water Works Company, I.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, American Water Works Company, I has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $137.69. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $87.37.