What is The Walt Disney Company (DIS) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is The Walt Disney Company's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

The Walt Disney Company operates in the Communication Services sector (Entertainment) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is The Walt Disney Company's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

The Walt Disney Company's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor The Walt Disney Company (DIS) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits The Walt Disney Company's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksDIS

DIS

Walt Disney Company (The)Communication Services / EntertainmentINTACT

The Walt Disney Company operates as an entertainment company in Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates in three segments: Entertainment, Sports, and Experiences. The company produces and distributes film and television content under the ABC Television Network, Disney, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star brand television channels, as well as ABC television stations and A+E television networks; and produces original content under the Disney Branded Television, FX Productions, Lucasfilm, Marvel, National Geographic Studios, Pixar, Searchlight Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, 20th Television, and Walt Disney Pictures banners. It also provides direct-to-consumer streaming services through Disney+, Disney+ Hotstar, and Hulu; sports-related video streaming content through ESPN, ESPN on ABC, ESPN+ DTC, and Star; sale/licensing of film and episodic content to television and video-on-demand services; theatrical, home entertainment, and music distribution services; DVD and Blu-ray discs, electronic home video licenses, and VOD rental services; staging and licensing of live entertainment events; and post-production services. In addition, the company operates theme parks and resorts, such as Walt Disney World Resort, Disneyland Resort, Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland Resort, Shanghai Disney Resort, Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, National Geographic Expeditions, and Adventures by Disney, as well as Aulani, a Disney resort and spa in Hawaii. Further, it licenses its intellectual property (IP) to a third party that owns and operates Tokyo Disney Resort; licenses trade names, characters, visual, literary, and other IP for use on merchandise, published materials, and games; operates a direct-to-home satellite distribution platform; sells branded merchandise through retail, online, and wholesale businesses; and develops and publishes books, comic books, and magazines. The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.

Share Price

$105.31

52W: $92.19 - $119.05

DCF Fair Value

$40.54

-159.8% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

21.7x

ROIC

14.5%

Operating Margin

19.3%

FCF Yield

2.7%

Debt / Equity

0.39x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.98

Market Cap

$181.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($40.54)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$40.54

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$30.41

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($40.54) 25% MOS Buy Target ($30.41) Revised Graham ($102.25) Graham Number ($83.31)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$105.31

DCF Fair Value

$40.66

-159% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$4,860M

$100M$4,860M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)9.7%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$40,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$46.9B

PV of Terminal Value

$64.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$111.0B

Implied Equity Value

$70.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$5,331	$5,849	$6,416	$7,038	$7,721	$8,068	$8,431	$8,811	$9,207	$9,622
Present Value (PV)	$4,891	$4,923	$4,954	$4,986	$5,018	$4,811	$4,612	$4,422	$4,239	$4,064

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-26.4% Premium

$83.31

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $4.85BVPS: $63.60

Revised Graham Formula-3% Premium

$102.25

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.5% Yield

$2.67 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $4.6BYield: 2.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

13.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $105.31, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 13.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil DIS with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Walt Disney Company (The). If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 19.3% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Walt Disney Company (The) (DIS) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Walt Disney Company (The).

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Walt Disney Company (The) has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $40.54 per share compared to its current market price of $105.31. This represents an estimated 159.8% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $83.31.