What is Ecolab Inc. (ECL) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Ecolab Inc. (ECL) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Ecolab Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Ecolab Inc. operates in the Basic Materials sector (Specialty Chemicals) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Ecolab Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Ecolab Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Ecolab Inc. (ECL) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Ecolab Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksECL

ECL

Ecolab Inc.Basic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsINTACT

Ecolab Inc. provides water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Global Water, Global Institutional & Specialty, Global Pest Elimination, and Global Life Sciences. The Global Water segment offers water treatment and process applications, and cleaning and sanitizing solutions to manufacturing, food and beverage processing, transportation, chemical, primary metals and mining, power generation, global refining, petrochemical, pulp and paper industries. The Global Institutional & Specialty segment provides cleaning and sanitizing products to the foodservice, healthcare, hospitality, lodging, government, education and retail industries. The Global Pest Elimination segment provides pest elimination services to detect, prevent, and eliminate pests comprising rodents and insects in full-service and quick-service restaurants, food and beverage processors, hotels, grocery operations, and other commercial segments, including education, life sciences, and healthcare. The Global Life Sciences segment provides cleaning and contamination control solutions to pharmaceutical and personal care manufacturers. It offers its products under the Ecolab, Kay, Purolite, and Bioquell brand names. The company sells its products through field sales and corporate account personnel, distributors, and dealers. Ecolab Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.

Share Price

$276.18

52W: $243.15 - $309.27

DCF Fair Value

$86.71

-218.5% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

37.1x

ROIC

13.9%

Operating Margin

18.5%

FCF Yield

1.9%

Debt / Equity

1.38x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.22

Market Cap

$77.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($86.71)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$86.71

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$65.03

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($86.71) 25% MOS Buy Target ($65.03) Revised Graham ($152.77) Graham Number ($77.49)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$276.18

DCF Fair Value

$86.91

-217.8% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,475M

$100M$1,475M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)9.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$8,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$14.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$19.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$33.1B

Implied Equity Value

$24.3B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,612	$1,762	$1,926	$2,105	$2,301	$2,404	$2,513	$2,626	$2,744	$2,867
Present Value (PV)	$1,479	$1,483	$1,487	$1,491	$1,495	$1,434	$1,374	$1,318	$1,263	$1,211

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-256.4% Premium

$77.49

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.44BVPS: $35.87

Revised Graham Formula-80.8% Premium

$152.77

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings1.8% Yield

$5.00 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.4BYield: 1.8%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

18.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $276.18, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 18.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ECL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Ecolab Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 18.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Ecolab Inc. (ECL) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Ecolab Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Ecolab Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $86.71 per share compared to its current market price of $276.18. This represents an estimated 218.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $77.49.