What is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Johnson & Johnson's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Johnson & Johnson operates in the Healthcare sector (Drug Manufacturers - General) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Johnson & Johnson's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Johnson & Johnson's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Johnson & Johnson's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksJNJ

JNJ

Johnson & JohnsonHealthcare / Drug Manufacturers - GeneralINTACT

Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular and metabolism distributed through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use. The MedTech segment provides a portfolio of products used in the surgery, orthopedic, cardiovascular, and vision fields distributed through wholesalers, hospitals and retailers, and used in the professional fields by physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals and clinics. This segment also offers products and enabling technologies that support joint reconstruction, trauma, spine, sports related injuries, and others, as well as open, laparoscopic, and robotic surgical procedures; instrumentation, energy devices, stapling systems, wound closure, biosurgery products, and digital and robotic technologies; breast aesthetics and reconstruction; contact lenses under the ACUVUE brand; intraocular lenses for cataract surgery, and other products used in cataract and refractive procedures under the TECNIS brand. The company was founded in 1886 and is based in New Brunswick, New Jersey.

Share Price

$265.58

52W: $173.33 - $281.07

DCF Fair Value

$183.77

-44.5% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

30.8x

ROIC

21.9%

Operating Margin

29.2%

FCF Yield

2.6%

Debt / Equity

0.58x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.13

Market Cap

$640B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($183.77)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$183.77

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$137.83

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($183.77) 25% MOS Buy Target ($137.83) Revised Graham ($240.49) Graham Number ($82.77)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$265.58

DCF Fair Value

$183.80

-44.5% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$16,885M

$100M$16,885M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)14.6%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$28,200M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$194.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$277.0B

Implied Enterprise Value

$471.2B

Implied Equity Value

$443.0B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$19,350	$22,175	$25,413	$29,123	$33,375	$34,877	$36,447	$38,087	$39,801	$41,592
Present Value (PV)	$17,752	$18,665	$19,623	$20,632	$21,692	$20,796	$19,938	$19,114	$18,325	$17,569

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-220.9% Premium

$82.77

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $8.63BVPS: $35.28

Revised Graham Formula-10.4% Premium

$240.49

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.5% Yield

$6.66 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $16.0BYield: 2.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

14.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $265.58, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 14.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil JNJ with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Johnson & Johnson. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 29.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Track JNJ & Set Alerts Browse S&P 500 Coverage

Frequently Asked Questions: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Johnson & Johnson.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Johnson & Johnson has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $183.77 per share compared to its current market price of $265.58. This represents an estimated 44.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $82.77.