What is NiSource Inc. (NI) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

NiSource Inc. (NI) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is NiSource Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

NiSource Inc. operates in the Utilities sector (Utilities - Regulated Gas) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is NiSource Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

NiSource Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor NiSource Inc. (NI) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits NiSource Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksNI

NI

NiSource IncUtilities / Utilities - Regulated GasINTACT

NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations. The company provides natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through approximately 37,300 miles of distribution main pipeline and the associated individual customer service lines; and 310 miles of transmission main pipeline in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland. It also generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 0.5 million customers in various counties in the northern part of Indiana, as well as engages in wholesale electric and transmission transactions. It owns and operates steam coal generating stations in Wheatfield and Michigan City; combined cycle gas turbine in West Terre Haute; natural gas generating units in Wheatfield; hydro generating plants in Carroll County and White County; wind generating units in White County; and solar generating units in Sullivan County, Gibson County, Jasper County, and White County. The company was formerly known as NIPSCO Industries, Inc. and changed its name to NiSource Inc. in April 1999. NiSource Inc. was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana.

Share Price

$41.41

52W: $39.3 - $49.21

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

22x

ROIC

12.9%

Operating Margin

17.2%

FCF Yield

-8.9%

Debt / Equity

1.47x

Piotroski Score

4/9

Altman Z-Score

2.06

Market Cap

$19.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0 Revised Graham ($36.88) Graham Number ($29.06)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$41.41

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$100M

$100M$-1,773M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)8.6%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$17,300M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$0.9B

PV of Terminal Value

$1.3B

Implied Enterprise Value

$2.2B

Implied Equity Value

$-15.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$109	$118	$128	$139	$151	$158	$165	$172	$180	$188
Present Value (PV)	$100	$99	$99	$99	$98	$94	$90	$87	$83	$80

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-42.5% Premium

$29.06

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.88BVPS: $19.97

Revised Graham Formula-12.3% Premium

$36.88

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings-8.5% Yield

$-3.51 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $-1.7BYield: -8.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

0.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $41.41, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil NI with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for NiSource Inc. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 17.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: NiSource Inc (NI) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for NiSource Inc.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, NiSource Inc has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $41.41. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $29.06.