What is NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is NRG Energy, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

NRG Energy, Inc. operates in the Utilities sector (Utilities - Independent Power Producers) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is NRG Energy, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

NRG Energy, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits NRG Energy, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksNRG

NRG

NRG Energy, Inc.Utilities / Utilities - Independent Power ProducersINTACT

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments. The company offers retail electricity, energy management, demand response and virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, smart home security, and automation services. It also offers system power, distributed and backup generation, energy storage, energy management, renewable and low-carbon products, and carbon management solutions for large business and commercial customers; a cloud-based home platform, including hardware, software, sales, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring solutions; and generation portfolio includes fossil fuel and renewable generation assets diversified by fuel type and dispatch level, with ongoing development of new natural gas and renewable projects. In addition, the company trades in power, natural gas, and related products; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It offers its products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. It serves residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Share Price

$113.46

52W: $108.34 - $189.96

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

29.5x

ROIC

9.6%

Operating Margin

12.8%

FCF Yield

3.2%

Debt / Equity

4.83x

Piotroski Score

4/9

Altman Z-Score

4.03

Market Cap

$23.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0 Revised Graham ($63.71) Graham Number ($41.56)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$113.46

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$772M

$100M$772M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)6.4%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$23,300M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$6.6B

PV of Terminal Value

$8.7B

Implied Enterprise Value

$15.4B

Implied Equity Value

$-7.9B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$821	$874	$930	$989	$1,053	$1,100	$1,150	$1,201	$1,255	$1,312
Present Value (PV)	$754	$736	$718	$701	$684	$656	$629	$603	$578	$554

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-173% Premium

$41.56

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $3.84BVPS: $19.99

Revised Graham Formula-78.1% Premium

$63.71

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3.1% Yield

$3.49 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.7BYield: 3.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

11.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $113.46, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 11.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil NRG with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for NRG Energy, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 12.8% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for NRG Energy, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, NRG Energy, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $113.46. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $41.56.