What is NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. operates in the Utilities sector (Utilities - Diversified) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksNWE

NWE

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.Utilities / Utilities - Regulated ElectricINTACT

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. It generates, purchases, transmits, and distributes electricity; and produces, purchases, stores, transmits, and distributes natural gas, as well as owns municipal franchises to provide natural gas service in the communities. The company operates 6,596 miles of electric transmission and 18,946 miles of electric distribution lines with approximately 397 transmission and distribution substations; and 2,133 miles of natural gas transmission and 5,939 miles of natural gas distribution lines with approximately 134 city gate stations in Montana. It also operates 1,344 miles of electric transmission and 2,386 miles of electric distribution lines in South Dakota with approximately 123 transmission and distribution substations; and 55 miles of natural gas transmission, 1,853 miles of natural gas distribution lines in South Dakota, and 836 miles of natural gas distribution lines Nebraska. The company provides electricity and/or natural gas to approximately 850,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

Share Price

$69.24

52W: $55.5 - $75.18

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

25x

ROIC

13%

Operating Margin

17.3%

FCF Yield

-5.7%

Debt / Equity

1.24x

Piotroski Score

4/9

Altman Z-Score

2.12

Market Cap

$4.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0 Revised Graham ($54.59) Graham Number ($54.16)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$69.24

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$100M

$100M$-243M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)8.7%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$3,600M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$0.9B

PV of Terminal Value

$1.3B

Implied Enterprise Value

$2.2B

Implied Equity Value

$-1.4B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$109	$118	$128	$140	$152	$159	$166	$173	$181	$189
Present Value (PV)	$100	$99	$99	$99	$99	$95	$91	$87	$83	$80

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-27.8% Premium

$54.16

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $2.77BVPS: $47.07

Revised Graham Formula-26.8% Premium

$54.59

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings-5.4% Yield

$-3.72 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $-0.2BYield: -5.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

0.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $69.24, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil NWE with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 17.3% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $69.24. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $54.16.