What is Vistra Corp. (VST) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Vistra Corp. (VST) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Vistra Corp.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Vistra Corp. operates in the Utilities sector (Utilities - Independent Power Producers) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Vistra Corp.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Vistra Corp.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Vistra Corp. (VST) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Vistra Corp.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksVST

VST

Vistra Corp.Utilities / Utilities - Independent Power ProducersINTACT

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

Share Price

$148.38

52W: $132.66 - $219.82

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

24.8x

ROIC

10.4%

Operating Margin

13.8%

FCF Yield

0.1%

Debt / Equity

3.73x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

2.84

Market Cap

$49.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0 Revised Graham ($103.60) Graham Number ($34.70)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$148.38

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$100M

$100M$37M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)6.9%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$20,100M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$0.9B

PV of Terminal Value

$1.2B

Implied Enterprise Value

$2.0B

Implied Equity Value

$-18.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$107	$114	$122	$131	$140	$146	$152	$159	$166	$174
Present Value (PV)	$98	$96	$94	$93	$91	$87	$83	$80	$77	$73

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-327.6% Premium

$34.70

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $5.98BVPS: $8.95

Revised Graham Formula-43.2% Premium

$103.60

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings0.1% Yield

$0.10 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.0BYield: 0.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER

67.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $148.38, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 67.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil VST with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Vistra Corp.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 13.8% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Vistra Corp. (VST) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Vistra Corp..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Vistra Corp. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $148.38. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $34.70.