ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyConsumer Defensive / Farm ProductsINTACT

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds, including soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed; produces and markets vegetable oils and oilseed protein meals used by food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; sale of crude and partially refined vegetable oils; supplies peanuts and peanut-derived ingredients; and manufactures cotton cellulose pulp. It is also involved in the grain sourcing, handling, and multimodal transportation network supporting import, export, and distribution activities; structured trade finance activities; corn and wheat wet and dry milling and related processing activities; production of distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, and corn gluten meal for use as animal feed ingredients; and carbon capture and sequestration and other emissions-reduction initiatives. In addition, the company engages in the creation, manufacturing, sale, and distribution of an array of ingredients and solutions comprising plant-based proteins, flavors and colors derived from nature, flavor systems, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients and systems. Further, it is involved in the derivatives and commodity exchanges and clearing houses; and insurance coverage for certain property, casualty, marine, medical, and other miscellaneous risks. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Share Price
$86.72
52W: $55.58 - $88.75
DCF Fair Value
$28.81
-201% Premium
P/E (TTM)
23.8x
ROIC
8%
Operating Margin
4%
FCF Yield
2.8%
Debt / Equity
0.39x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
5.9
Market Cap
$41.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($28.81)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$28.81
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$21.61
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$86.72
DCF Fair Value
$28.85
-200.6% Premium
$1,165M
$100M$1,165M (Reported)$50,000M
5.3%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$8,200M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$9.6B
PV of Terminal Value
$12.5B
Implied Enterprise Value
$22.1B
Implied Equity Value
$13.9B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$1,227$1,292$1,360$1,432$1,508$1,576$1,647$1,721$1,799$1,880
Present Value (PV)$1,125$1,087$1,050$1,015$980$940$901$864$828$794

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-36.8% Premium
$63.38

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $3.65BVPS: $48.91
Revised Graham Formula-57.1% Premium
$55.21

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings2.7% Yield
$2.30 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.1BYield: 2.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
13.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $86.72, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 13.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ADM with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $28.81 per share compared to its current market price of $86.72. This represents an estimated 201.0% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $63.38.

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