PEP

Pepsico, Inc.Consumer Defensive / Beverages - Non-AlcoholicINTACT

PepsiCo, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide. The company operates through six segments: PepsiCo Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; International Beverages Franchise; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America Foods; and Asia Pacific Foods. It offers cereals, chips, dips, granola bars, oatmeal, pasta, rice, and syrups and mixes; refrigerated dips and spreads; beverage concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods; and ready-to-drink tea and coffee products. The company also provides SodaStream sparkling water makers and related products, as well as various dairy products under the Agusha, Chudo, and Domik v Derevne brands. It serves wholesale and other distributors, foodservice customers, grocery stores, drug stores, convenience stores, discount/dollar stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, hard discounters, e-commerce retailers and authorized independent bottlers, and others through a network of direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and distributor networks, as well as directly to consumers through e-commerce platforms and retailers. PepsiCo, Inc. was founded in 1898 and is based in Purchase, New York.

Share Price
$136.32
52W: $133.73 - $171.48
DCF Fair Value
$92.94
-46.7% Premium
P/E (TTM)
17.9x
ROIC
12.6%
Operating Margin
16.8%
FCF Yield
4.2%
Debt / Equity
2.39x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
3.82
Market Cap
$186.2B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($92.94)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$92.94
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$69.71
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$136.32
DCF Fair Value
$92.94
-46.7% Premium
$7,832M
$100M$7,832M (Reported)$50,000M
8.4%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$42,500M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$72.1B
PV of Terminal Value
$97.3B
Implied Enterprise Value
$169.5B
Implied Equity Value
$127.0B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$8,490$9,203$9,976$10,814$11,722$12,250$12,801$13,377$13,979$14,608
Present Value (PV)$7,789$7,746$7,703$7,661$7,619$7,304$7,003$6,714$6,436$6,171

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-159% Premium
$52.63

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.61BVPS: $16.18
Revised Graham Formula+7.4%
$147.19

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings4% Yield
$5.45 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $7.4BYield: 4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
7.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $136.32, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 7.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil PEP with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Pepsico, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 16.8% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Pepsico, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Pepsico, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $92.94 per share compared to its current market price of $136.32. This represents an estimated 46.7% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $52.63.

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