PEP
Pepsico, Inc.Consumer Defensive / Beverages - Non-AlcoholicINTACTPepsiCo, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide. The company operates through six segments: PepsiCo Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; International Beverages Franchise; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America Foods; and Asia Pacific Foods. It offers cereals, chips, dips, granola bars, oatmeal, pasta, rice, and syrups and mixes; refrigerated dips and spreads; beverage concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods; and ready-to-drink tea and coffee products. The company also provides SodaStream sparkling water makers and related products, as well as various dairy products under the Agusha, Chudo, and Domik v Derevne brands. It serves wholesale and other distributors, foodservice customers, grocery stores, drug stores, convenience stores, discount/dollar stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, hard discounters, e-commerce retailers and authorized independent bottlers, and others through a network of direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and distributor networks, as well as directly to consumers through e-commerce platforms and retailers. PepsiCo, Inc. was founded in 1898 and is based in Purchase, New York.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Overvalued vs DCF ($92.94)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $8,490 | $9,203 | $9,976 | $10,814 | $11,722 | $12,250 | $12,801 | $13,377 | $13,979 | $14,608 |
| Present Value (PV) | $7,789 | $7,746 | $7,703 | $7,661 | $7,619 | $7,304 | $7,003 | $6,714 | $6,436 | $6,171 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
FAIR BARRIERAt the current price of $136.32, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 7.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil PEP with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for Pepsico, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 16.8% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Pepsico, Inc..
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