StocksMDLZ

MDLZ

Mondelez International, Inc.Consumer Defensive / ConfectionersINTACT

Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The company provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese, grocery, and powdered beverage products. Its brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate. It serves supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third-party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents. The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms. Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Share Price
$62.44
52W: $51.2 - $66.65
DCF Fair Value
$26.44
-136.2% Premium
P/E (TTM)
22.9x
ROIC
16.5%
Operating Margin
22%
FCF Yield
2.8%
Debt / Equity
0.83x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
3.93
Market Cap
$80.2B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($26.44)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$26.44
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$19.83
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$62.44
DCF Fair Value
$26.39
-136.6% Premium
$2,252M
$100M$2,252M (Reported)$50,000M
11.0%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$20,400M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$22.8B
PV of Terminal Value
$31.5B
Implied Enterprise Value
$54.3B
Implied Equity Value
$33.9B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$2,500$2,775$3,080$3,419$3,795$3,966$4,144$4,330$4,525$4,729
Present Value (PV)$2,293$2,335$2,378$2,422$2,466$2,365$2,267$2,173$2,084$1,998

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-74.7% Premium
$35.74

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $2.73BVPS: $20.80
Revised Graham Formula+0.2%
$62.56

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings2.7% Yield
$1.67 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.1BYield: 2.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
13.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $62.44, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 13.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MDLZ with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Mondelez International, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 22% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Mondelez International, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Mondelez International, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $26.44 per share compared to its current market price of $62.44. This represents an estimated 136.2% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $35.75.

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