StocksALGN

ALGN

Align Technology, Inc.Healthcare / Medical Instruments & SuppliesINTACT

Align Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally. The company's Clear Aligner segment offers Invisalign comprehensive package to treat adults and teens malocclusion and features, and orthodontic needs of teenage or younger patients; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients between the ages of six and ten years with a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth. This segment also provides Invisalign express, Invisalign lite, and Invisalign moderate; Invisalign Go, Invisalign Go express, and Invisalign Go Plus; retention products, Invisalign training, adjusting tools used by dental professionals during treatment, ancillary Invisalign accessory products, and other oral health products; Invisalign Professional Whitening system; Invisalign Palatal Expander, a 3D printed orthodontic device; and 3D printing solutions. Its Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services segment offers iTero intraoral scanning system, a single hardware platform for restorative or orthodontic procedures; exocad, a computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing software; orthodontist software for digital records storage, orthodontic diagnosis, and fabrication of printed models and retainers; and restorative software for general practitioner dentists, prosthodontists, periodontists, and oral surgeons. This segment also offers Invisalign outcome simulator, a chair-side and cloud-based application for the iTero scanner; Invisalign progress assessment tool; Align Oral Health Suite, a digital interface for dental consultations; iTero TimeLapse technology for doctors or practitioners to compare a patient's historic 3D scans to the present-day scan; and subscription software, disposables, rents scanners, and pay per scan services. Align Technology, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

Share Price
$150.82
52W: $122 - $200.44
DCF Fair Value
$200.36
+24.7% MoS
P/E (TTM)
26.2x
ROIC
13.7%
Operating Margin
18.2%
FCF Yield
5.5%
Debt / Equity
0.03x
Piotroski Score
9/9
Altman Z-Score
3.67
Market Cap
$10.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($150.82 vs $200.36 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$200.36
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$150.27
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$150.82
DCF Fair Value
$200.47
+24.8% MoS
$594M
$100M$594M (Reported)$50,000M
9.1%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
-$1,000M (Net Cash)
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$5.6B
PV of Terminal Value
$7.6B
Implied Enterprise Value
$13.2B
Implied Equity Value
$14.2B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$648$707$771$842$918$959$1,003$1,048$1,095$1,144
Present Value (PV)$595$595$596$596$597$572$548$526$504$483

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-71.9% Premium
$87.75

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $5.76BVPS: $59.41
Revised Graham Formula-28.7% Premium
$117.22

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings5.3% Yield
$7.95 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.6BYield: 5.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER
4.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $150.82, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 4.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ALGN with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Align Technology, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 18.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Align Technology, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Align Technology, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $200.36 per share compared to its current market price of $150.82. This represents an estimated 24.7% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $87.74.

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