StocksALLE

ALLE

Allegion plcIndustrials / Security & Protection ServicesINTACT

Allegion plc engages in the provision of security products and solutions worldwide. It is operating through two segments: Allegion Americas and Allegion International. The company offers door controls, door control system, and exit devices; doors, glass and door systems, and accessories; electronic security products and access control systems, including time, attendance, and workforce productivity; and locks, locksets, portable locks, and key systems. It also provides services and software, such as inspection, maintenance, and repair services for its automatic entrance solutions; software as a service, including access control, platform integration, and workforce management solutions; and ongoing aftermarket services, and design and installation offerings. In addition, the company sells its products and solutions to end-users in commercial, institutional, and residential facilities, including education, healthcare, government, hospitality, retail, commercial office, and single and multi-family residential markets under the CISA, Interflex, LCN, Schlage, SimonsVoss, and Von Duprin brands. It sells its products and solutions through distribution and retail channels, such as specialty distribution, e-commerce, and wholesalers, as well as through various retail channels comprising do-it-yourself home improvement centers, online and e-commerce platforms, and small specialty showroom outlets. Allegion plc was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.

Share Price
$153.35
52W: $125 - $183.11
DCF Fair Value
$115.20
-33.1% Premium
P/E (TTM)
20.1x
ROIC
16.6%
Operating Margin
22.1%
FCF Yield
3.7%
Debt / Equity
1.05x
Piotroski Score
8/9
Altman Z-Score
3.58
Market Cap
$13B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($115.20)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$115.20
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$86.40
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$153.35
DCF Fair Value
$115.46
-32.8% Premium
$484M
$100M$484M (Reported)$50,000M
11.1%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$1,900M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$4.9B
PV of Terminal Value
$6.8B
Implied Enterprise Value
$11.7B
Implied Equity Value
$9.8B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$538$597$664$737$819$856$895$935$977$1,021
Present Value (PV)$493$503$513$522$532$510$489$469$450$431

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-134.7% Premium
$65.35

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.62BVPS: $24.91
Revised Graham Formula+12.5%
$175.32

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings3.5% Yield
$5.41 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.5BYield: 3.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
9.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $153.35, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 9.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ALLE with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Allegion plc. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 22.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Allegion plc (ALLE) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Allegion plc.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Allegion plc has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $115.20 per share compared to its current market price of $153.35. This represents an estimated 33.1% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $65.35.

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