What is Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Union Pacific Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Union Pacific Corporation operates in the Industrials sector (Railroads) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Union Pacific Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Union Pacific Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Union Pacific Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksUNP

UNP

Union Pacific CorporationIndustrials / RailroadsINTACT

Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. It offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, and ethanol and renewable biofuel producers; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, petroleum, liquid petroleum gases, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

Share Price

$284.40

52W: $213.89 - $315.99

DCF Fair Value

$204.89

-38.8% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

23x

ROIC

30.8%

Operating Margin

41%

FCF Yield

2.8%

Debt / Equity

1.51x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.21

Market Cap

$169B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($204.89)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$204.89

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$153.67

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($204.89) 25% MOS Buy Target ($153.67) Revised Graham ($435.85) Graham Number ($95.33)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$284.40

DCF Fair Value

$204.84

-38.8% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$4,721M

$100M$4,721M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$29,100M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$61.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$89.7B

Implied Enterprise Value

$150.8B

Implied Equity Value

$121.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$5,571	$6,574	$7,757	$9,153	$10,801	$11,287	$11,794	$12,325	$12,880	$13,459
Present Value (PV)	$5,111	$5,533	$5,990	$6,484	$7,020	$6,730	$6,452	$6,186	$5,930	$5,685

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-198.3% Premium

$95.34

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $12.35BVPS: $32.71

Revised Graham Formula+34.7% MoS

$435.85

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.7% Yield

$7.55 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $4.5BYield: 2.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

13.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $284.40, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 13.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil UNP with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Union Pacific Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 41% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Track UNP & Set Alerts Browse S&P 500 Coverage

Frequently Asked Questions: Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Union Pacific Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Union Pacific Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $204.89 per share compared to its current market price of $284.40. This represents an estimated 38.8% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $95.33.