DE
Deere & CompanyIndustrials / Farm & Heavy Construction MachineryINTACTDeere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides four-wheel-drive track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery, and related attachments and service parts. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers specialty, utility, and compact tractors; self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments; rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, and utility vehicles; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications. The Construction and Forestry segment provides backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, skid-steer loaders, milling machines, recyclers, slipform and asphalt pavers, surface miners, compactors, tandem, static rollers, mobile crushers and screens, mobile and stationary asphalt plants, and log harvesters; and road building and rehabilitation equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties. Deere & Company has a strategic partnership with Tarter USA to develop and produce flex wing rotary cutters. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Overvalued vs DCF ($220.45)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $4,909 | $5,336 | $5,800 | $6,305 | $6,853 | $7,162 | $7,484 | $7,821 | $8,173 | $8,541 |
| Present Value (PV) | $4,504 | $4,491 | $4,479 | $4,466 | $4,454 | $4,270 | $4,094 | $3,925 | $3,763 | $3,608 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
HIGH BARRIERAt the current price of $675.74, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 15.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil DE with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for Deere & Company. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 17.5% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: Deere & Company (DE) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Deere & Company.
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