What is Amcor plc (AMCR) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Amcor plc (AMCR) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Amcor plc's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Amcor plc operates in the Basic Materials sector (Packaging & Containers) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Amcor plc's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Amcor plc's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Amcor plc (AMCR) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Amcor plc's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAMCR

AMCR

Amcor plcConsumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersINTACT

Amcor plc, together with its subsidiaries, develops and produces packaging solutions for nutrition, health, beauty, and wellness categories in Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. Its products include apparel, applicators, bags and bulk bags, bottles and vials, building materials, canisters and jerrycans, drinking cups, films and laminates, jars, lids, tapes and adhesives, trays, tubes, wipes packaging solutions, and miscellaneous and accessories, as well as tubs and pots. The company's Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment develops and supplies flexible packaging; and supplies polymer resin, aluminum, and fiber based flexible packaging solutions. Its Global Rigid Packaging Solutions segment manufactures rigid packaging containers, closures, dispensing and pharma delivery devices, and related products. The company sells its products through its direct sales force. Amcor plc was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

Share Price

$42.32

52W: $36.25 - $50.94

DCF Fair Value

$31.47

-34.5% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

17.8x

ROIC

Operating Margin

9.7%

FCF Yield

7.7%

Debt / Equity

1.28x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.64

Market Cap

$19.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($31.47)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$31.47

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$23.60

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($31.47) 25% MOS Buy Target ($23.60) Revised Graham ($36.00) Graham Number ($36.97)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$42.32

DCF Fair Value

$31.46

-34.5% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,504M

$100M$1,504M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$14,000M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$12.4B

PV of Terminal Value

$16.2B

Implied Enterprise Value

$28.5B

Implied Equity Value

$14.5B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,584	$1,668	$1,756	$1,849	$1,947	$2,035	$2,126	$2,222	$2,322	$2,426
Present Value (PV)	$1,453	$1,404	$1,356	$1,310	$1,265	$1,213	$1,163	$1,115	$1,069	$1,025

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-14.5% Premium

$36.97

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $2.38BVPS: $25.52

Revised Graham Formula-17.6% Premium

$36.00

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings7.3% Yield

$3.09 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.4BYield: 7.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-0.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $42.32, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -0.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AMCR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Amcor plc. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 9.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Amcor plc (AMCR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Amcor plc.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Amcor plc has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $31.47 per share compared to its current market price of $42.32. This represents an estimated 34.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $36.97.