What is Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Amazon.com, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Amazon.com, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Internet Retail) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Amazon.com, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Amazon.com, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Amazon.com, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAMZN

AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / Internet RetailINTACT

Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, fire tablets, fire TVs, echo, ring, blink, and eero; and develops and produces media content. In addition, the company offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, independent publishers, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, it provides compute, storage, Artificial intelligence, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as advertising services through programs, such as sponsored ads, display, and video advertising. Additionally, the company offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company's products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. It serves consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, content creators, advertisers, and employees. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

Share Price

$256.78

52W: $196 - $287.2

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

20.7x

ROIC

10.3%

Operating Margin

13.7%

FCF Yield

0.1%

Debt / Equity

0.46x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.28

Market Cap

$2769.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0 Revised Graham ($214.04) Graham Number ($119.56)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$256.78

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$3,219M

$100M$3,219M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)6.9%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$128,600M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$28.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$37.3B

Implied Enterprise Value

$65.4B

Implied Equity Value

$-63.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$3,441	$3,679	$3,932	$4,204	$4,494	$4,696	$4,907	$5,128	$5,359	$5,600
Present Value (PV)	$3,157	$3,096	$3,037	$2,978	$2,921	$2,800	$2,684	$2,574	$2,467	$2,366

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-114.8% Premium

$119.57

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $12.42BVPS: $51.16

Revised Graham Formula-20% Premium

$214.04

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings0.1% Yield

$0.28 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $3.1BYield: 0.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER

59.7% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $256.78, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 59.7% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AMZN with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Amazon.com, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 13.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Amazon.com, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Amazon.com, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $256.78. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $119.56.