What is McDonald's Corporation (MCD) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is McDonald's Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

McDonald's Corporation operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Restaurants) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is McDonald's Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

McDonald's Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor McDonald's Corporation (MCD) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits McDonald's Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksMCD

MCD

McDonald's CorporationConsumer Cyclical / RestaurantsINTACT

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Share Price

$252.53

52W: $252.17 - $341.75

DCF Fair Value

$206.61

-22.2% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

20.6x

ROIC

34.9%

Operating Margin

46.5%

FCF Yield

3.5%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.09

Market Cap

$178.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($206.61)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$206.61

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$154.96

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($206.61) 25% MOS Buy Target ($154.96) Revised Graham ($433.03)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$252.53

DCF Fair Value

$206.48

-22.3% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$6,262M

$100M$6,262M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$53,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$81.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$118.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$200.0B

Implied Equity Value

$146.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$7,389	$8,719	$10,289	$12,141	$14,326	$14,971	$15,644	$16,348	$17,084	$17,853
Present Value (PV)	$6,779	$7,339	$7,945	$8,601	$9,311	$8,926	$8,558	$8,205	$7,866	$7,541

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $12.27BVPS: $-1.45

Revised Graham Formula+41.7% MoS

$433.03

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3.3% Yield

$8.40 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $5.9BYield: 3.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

10.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $252.53, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 10.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MCD with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for McDonald's Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 46.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for McDonald's Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, McDonald's Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $206.61 per share compared to its current market price of $252.53. This represents an estimated 22.2% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.