AVY

Avery Dennison CorporationConsumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersINTACT

Avery Dennison Corporation operates as a materials science and digital identification solutions company in the North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It offers pressure-sensitive label materials, which consist of papers, plastic films, and metal foils; performance tapes products, including mechanical fasteners, which are precision-extruded and injection-molded plastic devices; and other pressure-sensitive adhesive-based materials and converted products under the Fasson, JAC, and Avery Dennison brands. The company provides graphics and reflective products that include films and other products for the architectural, commercial sign, digital printing, and other related market segments; durable cast and reflective films to the construction, automotive, and fleet transportation markets; sign shops, commercial printers, and designers for pressure-sensitive materials; reflective films for traffic and safety applications; and pressure-sensitive vinyl and specialty materials for digital imaging, screen printing, and sign cutting applications under the Avery Dennison and Mactac brand names. In addition, it offers branding solutions, which include brand embellishments, graphic tickets, tags, labels, and sustainable packaging; information solutions, such as item-level RFID, visibility and loss prevention, price ticketing and marking, productivity and media, and brand protection and security solutions; and shelf-edge productivity and media solutions under the Vestcom brand names, as well as care, content, and country of origin compliance solutions. It serves home and personal care, apparel, general retail, e-commerce, logistics, food and grocery, pharmaceuticals, and automotive industries. The company was formerly known as Avery International Corporation and changed its name to Avery Dennison Corporation in 1990. The company was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Mentor, Ohio.

Share Price
$169.38
52W: $152.42 - $199.54
DCF Fair Value
$221.16
+23.4% MoS
P/E (TTM)
18.5x
ROIC
10.2%
Operating Margin
13.6%
FCF Yield
7.8%
Debt / Equity
1.59x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
4.21
Market Cap
$13B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($169.38 vs $221.16 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$221.16
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$165.87
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$169.38
DCF Fair Value
$222.72
+23.9% MoS
$1,005M
$100M$1,005M (Reported)$50,000M
6.8%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$3,400M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$8.7B
PV of Terminal Value
$11.6B
Implied Enterprise Value
$20.3B
Implied Equity Value
$16.9B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$1,073$1,146$1,224$1,308$1,396$1,459$1,525$1,594$1,665$1,740
Present Value (PV)$985$965$945$926$908$870$834$800$767$735

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-113.1% Premium
$79.50

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $9.18BVPS: $30.60
Revised Graham Formula-7.6% Premium
$157.36

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings7.4% Yield
$12.56 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.0BYield: 7.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER
-0.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $169.38, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -0.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AVY with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Avery Dennison Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 13.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Avery Dennison Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Avery Dennison Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $221.16 per share compared to its current market price of $169.38. This represents an estimated 23.4% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $79.50.

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