What is Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Axon Enterprise, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector (Aerospace & Defense) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAXON

AXON

Axon Enterprise, Inc.Industrials / Aerospace & DefenseINTACT

Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices. The Software and Services segment develops, manufactures, and sells cloud-based software-as-a-service solutions to capture, store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. This segment also offers Axon Evidence, Draft One, Axon Records, Axon Standards, Axon Fusus, Axon Assistant, and others. The Connected Devices segment engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of integrated hardware solutions, such as conducted energy devices under the TASER brand, body cameras, fixed and in-car cameras, drone and counter-drone technologies, accessories, extended warranties, and related hardware products, as well as virtual reality training hardware. The company serves first responders across international, federal, state, and local governments, international governmental entities, commercial enterprises, and consumers through direct sales, distribution partners, and third-party resellers. The company was formerly known as TASER International, Inc. and changed its name to Axon Enterprise, Inc. in April 2017. Axon Enterprise, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Share Price

$479.34

52W: $339.01 - $792.16

DCF Fair Value

$37.67

-1172.5% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

200.6x

ROIC

Operating Margin

5.2%

FCF Yield

0.6%

Debt / Equity

0.5x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

2.9

Market Cap

$38.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($37.67)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$37.67

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$28.25

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($37.67) 25% MOS Buy Target ($28.25) Revised Graham ($36.15) Graham Number ($49.32)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$479.34

DCF Fair Value

$37.19

-1189% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$222M

$100M$222M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$1,200M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$1.8B

PV of Terminal Value

$2.4B

Implied Enterprise Value

$4.2B

Implied Equity Value

$3.0B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$234	$246	$259	$273	$287	$300	$314	$328	$343	$358
Present Value (PV)	$214	$207	$200	$193	$187	$179	$172	$165	$158	$151

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-871.9% Premium

$49.32

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $2.39BVPS: $45.23

Revised Graham Formula-1226% Premium

$36.15

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings0.5% Yield

$2.60 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.2BYield: 0.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER

35.2% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $479.34, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 35.2% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AXON with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Axon Enterprise, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 5.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Axon Enterprise, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Axon Enterprise, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $37.67 per share compared to its current market price of $479.34. This represents an estimated 1172.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $49.32.