What is Ball Corporation (BALL) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Ball Corporation (BALL) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Ball Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Ball Corporation operates in the Basic Materials sector (Packaging & Containers) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Ball Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Ball Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Ball Corporation (BALL) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Ball Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksBALL

BALL

Ball CorporationConsumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersINTACT

Ball Corporation supplies aluminum packaging products for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells aluminum beverage containers to fillers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other beverages. It manufactures and sells extruded aluminum aerosol containers, recloseable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs. The company was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Westminster, Colorado.

Share Price

$59.90

52W: $44.83 - $68.29

DCF Fair Value

$0.52

-11419.2% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

17.2x

ROIC

Operating Margin

9.2%

FCF Yield

2.4%

Debt / Equity

1.31x

Piotroski Score

4/9

Altman Z-Score

3.55

Market Cap

$15.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($0.52)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$0.52

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$0.39

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($0.52) 25% MOS Buy Target ($0.39) Revised Graham ($52.79) Graham Number ($41.29)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$59.90

DCF Fair Value

$0.41

-14386.5% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$380M

$100M$380M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$7,100M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$3.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$4.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$7.2B

Implied Equity Value

$0.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$400	$421	$444	$467	$492	$514	$537	$561	$587	$613
Present Value (PV)	$367	$355	$343	$331	$320	$307	$294	$282	$270	$259

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-45% Premium

$41.30

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $3.49BVPS: $21.72

Revised Graham Formula-13.5% Premium

$52.79

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.3% Yield

$1.36 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.4BYield: 2.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

15.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $59.90, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 15.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil BALL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Ball Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 9.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Ball Corporation (BALL) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Ball Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Ball Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.52 per share compared to its current market price of $59.90. This represents an estimated 11419.2% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $41.29.