What is Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Carrier Global Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Carrier Global Corporation operates in the Industrials sector (Building Products & Equipment) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Carrier Global Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Carrier Global Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Carrier Global Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksCARR

CARR

Carrier Global CorporationIndustrials / Building Products & EquipmentINTACT

Carrier Global Corporation provides intelligent climate and energy solutions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Climate Solutions Americas; Climate Solutions Europe; Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa; and Climate Solutions Transportation. The company provides air conditioners, heating systems, heat pumps, home and building energy management systems, automation systems, aftermarket components, and repair and maintenance and rental services, as well as modernization and upgrades to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. It also offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products, services, and digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, and intermodal and rail applications. The company offers its products under the Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

Share Price

$57.46

52W: $50.24 - $76.76

DCF Fair Value

$7.45

-671.3% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

40.5x

ROIC

9.8%

Operating Margin

13.1%

FCF Yield

1.8%

Debt / Equity

0.92x

Piotroski Score

5/9

Altman Z-Score

3.67

Market Cap

$47.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($7.45)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$7.45

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$5.59

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($7.45) 25% MOS Buy Target ($5.59) Revised Graham ($23.82) Graham Number ($22.56)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$57.46

DCF Fair Value

$7.36

-681% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$862M

$100M$862M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)6.5%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$11,100M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$7.4B

PV of Terminal Value

$9.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$17.2B

Implied Equity Value

$6.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$918	$978	$1,041	$1,109	$1,181	$1,234	$1,290	$1,348	$1,408	$1,472
Present Value (PV)	$842	$823	$804	$786	$768	$736	$706	$676	$648	$622

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-154.6% Premium

$22.57

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.42BVPS: $15.94

Revised Graham Formula-141.2% Premium

$23.82

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings1.7% Yield

$0.99 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.8BYield: 1.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

19.2% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $57.46, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 19.2% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil CARR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Carrier Global Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 13.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Carrier Global Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Carrier Global Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $7.45 per share compared to its current market price of $57.46. This represents an estimated 671.3% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $22.56.