What is CVS Health Corporation (CVS) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

CVS Health Corporation (CVS) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is CVS Health Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

CVS Health Corporation operates in the Healthcare sector (Healthcare Plans) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is CVS Health Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

CVS Health Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor CVS Health Corporation (CVS) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits CVS Health Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksCVS

CVS

CVS Health CorporationHealthcare / Healthcare PlansINTACT

CVS Health Corporation provides health solutions in the United States. The Health Care Benefits segment offers traditional, voluntary, and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental, and behavioral health plans; medical management capabilities; Medicare Advantage and Medicare Supplement plans; prescription drug plans (PDPs); and Medicaid health care management services. It serves employer groups, individuals, college students, part-time and hourly workers, health plans, health care providers, governmental units, government-sponsored plans, labor groups, and expatriates. The Health Services segment offers pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design and administration, formulary management, retail pharmacy network management, specialty and mail-order pharmacy, clinical services, disease management, medical spend management services, and pharmacy and other administrative services. It serves employers, insurance companies, unions, government employee groups, health plans, PDPs, Medicaid managed care plans, CMS, plans offered on public health insurance exchanges, and other sponsors of health benefit plans. The Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment sells prescription and over-the-counter drugs, consumer health and beauty products, personal care products, and other general merchandise products. This segment also distributes prescription drugs; and provides related pharmacy consulting and other ancillary services to care facilities and other care settings. It operates online retail pharmacy websites, retail specialty pharmacy stores, and compounding pharmacies, as well as branches for infusion and enteral nutrition services. The company was formerly known as CVS Caremark Corporation and changed its name to CVS Health Corporation in September 2014. CVS Health Corporation was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Woonsocket, Rhode Island.

Share Price

$94.66

52W: $69.51 - $110.68

DCF Fair Value

$71.23

-32.9% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

25x

ROIC

Operating Margin

3.9%

FCF Yield

6.7%

Debt / Equity

0.96x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

7.01

Market Cap

$121.1B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($71.23)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$71.23

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$53.42

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($71.23) 25% MOS Buy Target ($53.42) Revised Graham ($57.32) Graham Number ($72.93)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$94.66

DCF Fair Value

$71.10

-33.1% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$8,076M

$100M$8,076M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$62,300M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$66.4B

PV of Terminal Value

$86.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$153.2B

Implied Equity Value

$90.9B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$8,504	$8,955	$9,429	$9,929	$10,455	$10,926	$11,417	$11,931	$12,468	$13,029
Present Value (PV)	$7,802	$7,537	$7,281	$7,034	$6,795	$6,515	$6,246	$5,988	$5,741	$5,504

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-29.8% Premium

$72.93

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $3.79BVPS: $62.37

Revised Graham Formula-65.1% Premium

$57.32

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings6.3% Yield

$6.00 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $7.7BYield: 6.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

1.8% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $94.66, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 1.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil CVS with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for CVS Health Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 3.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for CVS Health Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, CVS Health Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $71.23 per share compared to its current market price of $94.66. This represents an estimated 32.9% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $72.93.