What is DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is DexCom, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

DexCom, Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector (Medical Devices) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is DexCom, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

DexCom, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits DexCom, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksDXCM

DXCM

DexCom, Inc.Healthcare / Medical DevicesINTACT

DexCom, Inc., a medical device company, focuses on the design, development, and commercialization of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for the management of diabetes and metabolic health in the United States and internationally. The company offers Dexcom G7 and G7 15 Day, an integrated continuous glucose monitoring system; Dexcom G6, a CGM system; Dexcom ONE+ to replace fingerstick blood glucose testing for diabetes treatment decisions; Stelo, a biosensor designed for adults with prediabetes and Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin; Dexcom Share, a remote monitoring system; and Dexcom Follow application. It markets its products directly to endocrinologists, physicians, and diabetes educators. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Share Price

$83.03

52W: $54.11 - $92.59

DCF Fair Value

$69.77

-19% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

32.8x

ROIC

18.2%

Operating Margin

24.3%

FCF Yield

3.3%

Debt / Equity

0.53x

Piotroski Score

9/9

Altman Z-Score

3.14

Market Cap

$31.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($69.77)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$69.77

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$52.33

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($69.77) 25% MOS Buy Target ($52.33) Revised Graham ($61.92) Graham Number ($19.88)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$83.03

DCF Fair Value

$69.62

-19.3% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,021M

$100M$1,021M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)12.1%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$500M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$10.7B

PV of Terminal Value

$15.0B

Implied Enterprise Value

$25.7B

Implied Equity Value

$26.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,145	$1,283	$1,438	$1,612	$1,807	$1,889	$1,974	$2,063	$2,155	$2,252
Present Value (PV)	$1,050	$1,080	$1,111	$1,142	$1,175	$1,126	$1,080	$1,035	$992	$951

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-317.4% Premium

$19.89

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $2.53BVPS: $6.95

Revised Graham Formula-34.1% Premium

$61.92

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3.1% Yield

$2.57 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.0BYield: 3.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

11.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $83.03, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 11.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil DXCM with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for DexCom, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 24.3% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for DexCom, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, DexCom, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $69.77 per share compared to its current market price of $83.03. This represents an estimated 19.0% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $19.88.