What is Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Extra Space Storage Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Extra Space Storage Inc. operates in the Real Estate sector (REIT - Industrial) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Extra Space Storage Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Extra Space Storage Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Extra Space Storage Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksEXR

EXR

Extra Space Storage IncReal Estate / REIT - IndustrialINTACT

Extra Space Storage Inc., headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah, is a self-administered and self-managed REIT and a member of the S&P 500. As of June 30, 2026, the Company owned and/or operated 4,410 self-storage stores in 42 states and Washington, D.C. The Company's stores comprise approximately 3.0 million units and approximately 341.0 million square feet of rentable space operating under the Extra Space brand. The Company offers customers a wide selection of conveniently located and secure storage units across the country, including boat storage, RV storage, and business storage. It is the largest operator of self-storage properties in the United States. Extra Space Storage Inc. was incorporated in 1977 in Maryland, USA.

Share Price

$137.64

52W: $125.71 - $158.88

DCF Fair Value

$161.67

+14.9%

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

30.4x

ROIC

34.4%

Operating Margin

45.9%

FCF Yield

4.9%

Debt / Equity

1.02x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

2.27

Market Cap

$30.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($137.64 vs $161.67 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$161.67

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$121.25

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($161.67) 25% MOS Buy Target ($121.25) Revised Graham ($159.87) Graham Number ($79.97)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$137.64

DCF Fair Value

$161.96

+15%

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,499M

$100M$1,499M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$13,700M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$19.4B

PV of Terminal Value

$28.5B

Implied Enterprise Value

$47.9B

Implied Equity Value

$34.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,769	$2,087	$2,463	$2,906	$3,429	$3,584	$3,745	$3,913	$4,090	$4,274
Present Value (PV)	$1,623	$1,757	$1,902	$2,059	$2,229	$2,137	$2,049	$1,964	$1,883	$1,805

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-72.1% Premium

$79.97

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $4.53BVPS: $62.75

Revised Graham Formula+13.9%

$159.87

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings4.9% Yield

$6.75 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.4BYield: 4.9%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

5.2% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $137.64, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 5.2% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil EXR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Extra Space Storage Inc. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 45.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Extra Space Storage Inc.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Extra Space Storage Inc has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $161.67 per share compared to its current market price of $137.64. This represents an estimated 14.9% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $79.97.