FAST
Fastenal CompanyIndustrials / Industrial DistributionINTACTFastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines. It offers miscellaneous supplies and hardware, including pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, rivets, and related accessories. The company serves the manufacturing market comprising original equipment manufacturers; maintenance, repair, and operations customers; non-residential construction market; farmers, truckers, railroads, mining companies, schools, and retail trades; and oil exploration, production, and refinement companies, as well as federal, state, and local governmental entities. Fastenal Company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Winona, Minnesota.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Overvalued vs DCF ($18.67)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $1,012 | $1,118 | $1,236 | $1,366 | $1,509 | $1,577 | $1,648 | $1,722 | $1,800 | $1,881 |
| Present Value (PV) | $929 | $941 | $954 | $967 | $981 | $940 | $901 | $864 | $829 | $794 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
HIGH BARRIERAt the current price of $49.32, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 20.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil FAST with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for Fastenal Company. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 21% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: Fastenal Company (FAST) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Fastenal Company.
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