HUM

Humana Inc.Healthcare / Healthcare PlansINTACT

Humana Inc. provides medical and specialty insurance products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Insurance and CenterWell. The Insurance segment offers individual Medicare Advantage products, including health insurance benefits, including wellness programs, chronic care management, and care coordination; individual Medicare stand-alone prescription drug products (PDP); group Medicare advantage and Medicare stand-alone PDP; Medicare supplements; specialty and ancillary insurance comprising dental, vision, life and disability; and administrative services to arrange health care services for active-duty and retired military personnel and dependents, as well as pharmacy benefit managers. Its CenterWell segment operates full-service, value-based senior focused primary care centers under the Conviva Senior Primary Care and CenterWell Senior Primary Care brands; a management services organization; CenterWell Home Health, a home health provider; and OneHome, which manages post-acute patient needs, as well as provides pharmacy and hospice solutions. The company was formerly known as Extendicare Inc. and changed its name to Humana Inc. in April 1974. Humana Inc. was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

Share Price
$409.80
52W: $163.11 - $428.88
DCF Fair Value
$383.14
-7% Premium
P/E (TTM)
38.7x
ROIC
8%
Operating Margin
3.5%
FCF Yield
3.9%
Debt / Equity
0.76x
Piotroski Score
7/9
Altman Z-Score
8
Market Cap
$49.2B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($383.14)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$383.14
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$287.36
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$409.80
DCF Fair Value
$383.57
-6.8% Premium
$1,941M
$100M$1,941M (Reported)$50,000M
5.3%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
-$9,200M (Net Cash)
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$16.0B
PV of Terminal Value
$20.9B
Implied Enterprise Value
$36.8B
Implied Equity Value
$46.0B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$2,044$2,152$2,266$2,386$2,513$2,626$2,744$2,868$2,997$3,131
Present Value (PV)$1,875$1,811$1,750$1,691$1,633$1,566$1,501$1,439$1,380$1,323

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-110% Premium
$195.16

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $10.58BVPS: $160.00
Revised Graham Formula-156.1% Premium
$160.02

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings3.8% Yield
$15.37 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.8BYield: 3.8%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
8.8% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $409.80, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 8.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil HUM with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Humana Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 3.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Humana Inc. (HUM) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Humana Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Humana Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $383.14 per share compared to its current market price of $409.80. This represents an estimated 7.0% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $195.16.

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