What is The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is The Kraft Heinz Company's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

The Kraft Heinz Company operates in the Consumer Defensive sector (Packaged Foods) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is The Kraft Heinz Company's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

The Kraft Heinz Company's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits The Kraft Heinz Company's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksKHC

KHC

The Kraft Heinz CompanyConsumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsINTACT

The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in North America and internationally. Its products include condiments, sauces, dressings, and spreads; cheese, frozen potato products, and other frozen meals; meal kits, frozen snacks, and pickles; dry packaged desserts, refrigerated ready to eat desserts, and other dessert toppings; ready to drink and powdered beverages, and liquid concentrates; American sliced and recipe cheeses; mainstream coffee, coffee pods, and premium coffee; and cold cuts, bacon, and hot dogs. It offers its products under the Kraft, Oscar Mayer, Heinz, Philadelphia, Lunchables, Velveeta, Ore-Ida, Capri Sun, Maxwell House, Kool-Aid, Jell-O, ABC, Master, Quero, Golden Circle, Wattie's, Pudliszki, and Plasmon brands, as well as Bagel Bites, Claussen, A1, and Cool Whip. It sells its products through its own sales organizations, as well as through independent brokers, agents, and distributors to chain, wholesale, cooperative, and independent grocery accounts; convenience, value, and club stores; pharmacies and drug stores; mass merchants; foodservice distributors; institutions, including hotels, restaurants, bakeries, hospitals, health care facilities, and government agencies; and various e-commerce platforms and retailers. The company has a strategic partnership with the National Football League. The company was formerly known as H.J. Heinz Holding Corporation and changed its name to The Kraft Heinz Company in July 2015. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Share Price

$24.60

52W: $21.04 - $28.09

DCF Fair Value

$43.92

+44% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

20x

ROIC

11.6%

Operating Margin

15.5%

FCF Yield

11.1%

Debt / Equity

0.53x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.35

Market Cap

$29.2B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$43.92

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$32.94

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($43.92) 25% MOS Buy Target ($32.94)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$24.60

DCF Fair Value

$43.85

+43.9% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$3,251M

$100M$3,251M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)7.7%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$16,300M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$29.2B

PV of Terminal Value

$39.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$68.3B

Implied Equity Value

$52.0B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$3,501	$3,771	$4,061	$4,374	$4,711	$4,923	$5,144	$5,376	$5,618	$5,871
Present Value (PV)	$3,212	$3,174	$3,136	$3,099	$3,062	$2,935	$2,814	$2,698	$2,587	$2,480

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $-2.85BVPS: $30.36

Revised Graham Formula

N/A

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings10.6% Yield

$2.60 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $3.1BYield: 10.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-5.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $24.60, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -5.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil KHC with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for The Kraft Heinz Company. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 15.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Track KHC & Set Alerts Browse S&P 500 Coverage

Frequently Asked Questions: The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for The Kraft Heinz Company.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, The Kraft Heinz Company has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $43.92 per share compared to its current market price of $24.60. This represents an estimated 44.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.