What is The Kroger Co. (KR) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

The Kroger Co. (KR) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is The Kroger Co.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

The Kroger Co. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector (Grocery Stores) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is The Kroger Co.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

The Kroger Co.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor The Kroger Co. (KR) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits The Kroger Co.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksKR

KR

Kroger Company (The)Consumer Defensive / Grocery StoresINTACT

The Kroger Co. operates as a food and drug retailer in the United States. The company operates combination food and drug stores, multi-department stores, marketplace stores, and price impact warehouses. Its combination food and drug stores offer natural food and organic sections, pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers, fresh seafood, and organic produce; and its multi-department stores provide apparel, home fashion and furnishings, outdoor living, electronics, automotive products, and toys. The company's marketplace stores offer full-service grocery, pharmacy, health and beauty care, and perishable goods, as well as general merchandise, including apparel, home goods, and toys; and its price impact warehouse stores provide grocery, and health and beauty care items, as well as meat, dairy, baked goods, and fresh produce items. It also manufactures and processes food products for sale in its supermarkets and online; and sells fuel through its fuel centers. The company sells its products through its stores, fuel centers, and online platforms. The Kroger Co. was founded in 1883 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Share Price

$58.49

52W: $54.15 - $76.58

DCF Fair Value

$59.71

+2%

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

34.2x

ROIC

Operating Margin

3.2%

FCF Yield

8.6%

Debt / Equity

3.73x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

8.18

Market Cap

$34.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($58.49 vs $59.71 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$59.71

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$44.78

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($59.71) 25% MOS Buy Target ($44.78) Revised Graham ($25.86) Graham Number ($18.87)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$58.49

DCF Fair Value

$59.61

+1.9%

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$2,995M

$100M$2,995M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$21,300M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$24.6B

PV of Terminal Value

$32.2B

Implied Enterprise Value

$56.8B

Implied Equity Value

$35.5B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$3,154	$3,321	$3,497	$3,682	$3,877	$4,052	$4,234	$4,425	$4,624	$4,832
Present Value (PV)	$2,893	$2,795	$2,700	$2,609	$2,520	$2,416	$2,316	$2,221	$2,129	$2,041

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-210% Premium

$18.87

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.71BVPS: $9.25

Revised Graham Formula-126.2% Premium

$25.86

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings8.2% Yield

$4.77 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.8BYield: 8.2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-1.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $58.49, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -1.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil KR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Kroger Company (The). If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 3.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Kroger Company (The) (KR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Kroger Company (The).

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Kroger Company (The) has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $59.71 per share compared to its current market price of $58.49. This represents an estimated 2.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $18.87.