LMT

Lockheed Martin CorporationIndustrials / Aerospace & DefenseINTACT

Lockheed Martin Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services in the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Aeronautics; Missiles and Fire Control (MFC); Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS); and Space. The Aeronautics segment offers combat and air mobility aircraft, unmanned air vehicles, and related technologies. The MFC segment provides air and missile defense systems; tactical missiles and precision strike weapon systems; logistics; fire control systems; mission operations support, readiness, engineering support, and integration services; and ground vehicles. The RMS segment offers military and commercial helicopters, surface ships, sea- and land-based missile defense systems, radar and laser systems, sea- and air-based mission and combat systems, command and control mission solutions, cyber solutions, simulation and training solutions, and services and support for surface ships. The Space segment provides satellites; space transportation systems; strategic, advanced strike, and defensive systems; and classified systems and services in support of national security systems. This segment also provides network-enabled situational awareness; and integrates space and ground global systems to help its customers gather, analyze, and securely distribute critical intelligence data. It primarily serves the U.S. government and international customers, as well as foreign military sales contracted through the U.S. government. The company was formerly known as The Lockheed Corporation and changed its name to Lockheed Martin Corporation in March 1995. Lockheed Martin Corporation was founded in 1912 and is based in Bethesda, Maryland.

Share Price
$524.19
52W: $437.25 - $692
DCF Fair Value
$398.66
-31.5% Premium
P/E (TTM)
19.5x
ROIC
9%
Operating Margin
12%
FCF Yield
4.6%
Debt / Equity
2.34x
Piotroski Score
5/9
Altman Z-Score
3.98
Market Cap
$121B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($398.66)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$398.66
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$299.00
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$524.19
DCF Fair Value
$398.50
-31.5% Premium
$5,563M
$100M$5,563M (Reported)$50,000M
6.0%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$16,700M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$47.0B
PV of Terminal Value
$61.8B
Implied Enterprise Value
$108.8B
Implied Equity Value
$92.1B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$5,897$6,251$6,626$7,023$7,445$7,780$8,130$8,495$8,878$9,277
Present Value (PV)$5,410$5,261$5,116$4,975$4,838$4,639$4,447$4,264$4,088$3,919

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-245.5% Premium
$151.73

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $26.84BVPS: $38.12
Revised Graham Formula-21.7% Premium
$430.56

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings4.4% Yield
$22.88 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $5.3BYield: 4.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER
6.8% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $524.19, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 6.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil LMT with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Lockheed Martin Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 12% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Lockheed Martin Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Lockheed Martin Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $398.66 per share compared to its current market price of $524.19. This represents an estimated 31.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $151.73.

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