StocksLSTR

LSTR

Landstar System, Inc.Industrials / Integrated Freight & LogisticsINTACT

Landstar System, Inc. provides transportation management solutions in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Transportation Logistics and Insurance. The Transportation Logistics segment offers a range of transportation services, including truckload, less-than-truckload and other truck transportation, rail intermodal, air cargo, ocean cargo, expedited ground and air delivery of time-critical freight, heavy-haul/specialized, hazardous materials, cold chain/temperature-controlled, U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico cross-border, intra-Mexico, intra-Canada, project cargo, and customs brokerage services, as well as transportation services to other transportation companies, such as third party logistics and less-than-truckload service providers. This segment serves the automotive parts and assemblies, consumer durables, building products, metals, chemicals, foodstuffs, heavy machinery, retail, electronics, military equipment and general commodities industries. The Insurance segment provides risk and claims management services; and reinsures risks of its independent contractors. The company markets its services through a network of agents, third party capacity providers, and employees. Landstar System, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

Share Price
$172.78
52W: $119.32 - $228.46
DCF Fair Value
$62.15
-178% Premium
P/E (TTM)
44.8x
ROIC
8%
Operating Margin
4.6%
FCF Yield
1.7%
Debt / Equity
0.17x
Piotroski Score
7/9
Altman Z-Score
3.77
Market Cap
$5.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($62.15)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$62.15
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$46.61
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$172.78
DCF Fair Value
$61.69
-180.1% Premium
$100M
$100M$97M (Reported)$50,000M
5.3%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
-$200M (Net Cash)
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$0.8B
PV of Terminal Value
$1.1B
Implied Enterprise Value
$1.9B
Implied Equity Value
$2.1B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$105$111$117$123$129$135$141$148$154$161
Present Value (PV)$97$93$90$87$84$81$77$74$71$68

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-273.3% Premium
$46.28

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $3.86BVPS: $24.66
Revised Graham Formula-196% Premium
$58.38

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings1.6% Yield
$2.71 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.1BYield: 1.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER
20.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $172.78, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 20.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil LSTR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Landstar System, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 4.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Landstar System, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Landstar System, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $62.15 per share compared to its current market price of $172.78. This represents an estimated 178.0% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $46.27.

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