What is Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. operates in the Real Estate sector (REIT - Residential) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksMAA

MAA

Mid-America Apartment CommunitiReal Estate / REIT - ResidentialINTACT

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. an S&P 500 company, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on delivering full-cycle and superior investment performance for shareholders through the ownership, management, acquisition, development and redevelopment of quality apartment communities primarily in the Southeast, Southwest and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. As of June 30, 2026, MAA had ownership interest in 104,698 apartment units, including communities in development, across 16 states and the District of Columbia. Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. was incorporated in 1977 in Tennessee and is based in Germantown, Tennessee.

Share Price

$124.79

52W: $120.3 - $144.41

DCF Fair Value

$155.55

+19.8%

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

36.5x

ROIC

19%

Operating Margin

25.4%

FCF Yield

6.2%

Debt / Equity

1.02x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

2.57

Market Cap

$14.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($124.79 vs $155.55 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$155.55

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$116.66

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($155.55) 25% MOS Buy Target ($116.66) Revised Graham ($86.21) Graham Number ($60.04)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$124.79

DCF Fair Value

$156.89

+20.5% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$921M

$100M$921M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)12.7%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$5,600M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$9.9B

PV of Terminal Value

$13.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$23.8B

Implied Equity Value

$18.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,038	$1,170	$1,318	$1,486	$1,674	$1,750	$1,829	$1,911	$1,997	$2,087
Present Value (PV)	$952	$985	$1,018	$1,053	$1,088	$1,043	$1,000	$959	$919	$881

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-107.8% Premium

$60.04

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $3.42BVPS: $46.84

Revised Graham Formula-44.8% Premium

$86.21

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings6% Yield

$7.54 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.9BYield: 6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

2.5% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $124.79, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 2.5% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MAA with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Mid-America Apartment Communiti. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 25.4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Mid-America Apartment Communiti (MAA) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Mid-America Apartment Communiti.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Mid-America Apartment Communiti has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $155.55 per share compared to its current market price of $124.79. This represents an estimated 19.8% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $60.04.