StocksMNST

MNST

Monster Beverage CorporationConsumer Defensive / Beverages - Non-AlcoholicINTACT

Monster Beverage Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in development, marketing, sale, and distribution of energy drink beverages and concentrates in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Monster Energy Drinks, Strategic Brands, Alcohol Brands, and Other. It offers carbonated non-carbonated energy drinks, ready-to-drink iced teas, lemonades, juice cocktails, single-serve juices and fruit beverages, ready-to-drink dairy and coffee drinks, energy drinks, sports drinks and single-serve still waters, and sodas that are considered natural, sparkling juices, and flavored sparkling beverages. In addition, the company provides its products under the Monster Energy, Monster Energy Ultra, Rehab Monster, Monster Energy Nitro, Java Monster, Punch Monster, Juice Monster, Monster Tour Water, Reign Total Body Fuel, Reign Storm, Bang Energy, NOS, Full Throttle, Burn, Mother, Nalu, Ultra Energy, Play and Power Play, Relentless, BPM, BU, Samurai, Live+, Predator, and Fury brands. Further, it offers craft beers, flavored malt beverages,and hard seltzers under the Jai Alai IPA, Florida Man IPA, Dale's Pale Ale, Wild Basin Hard Seltzers, Dallas Blonde, Deep Ellum IPA, Perrin Brewing Company Black Ale, Hop Rising Double IPA, Wasatch Apricot Hefeweizen, The Beast, and Beast Tea, Blind Lemon, and Blinder Lemon brands. The company engages in the concentrates and/or beverage bases to authorized bottling, and canning operations. It sells its products to full-service beverage bottlers/distributors, retail grocery and specialty chains, wholesalers, club stores, mass merchandisers, convenience and gas chains, food service customers, value stores, e-commerce retailers, and the military. The company was formerly known as Hansen Natural Corporation and changed its name to Monster Beverage Corporation in January 2012. Monster Beverage Corporation was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Corona, California.

Share Price
$43.40
52W: $31.51 - $50.17
DCF Fair Value
$25.64
-69.3% Premium
P/E (TTM)
40.2x
ROIC
21.9%
Operating Margin
29.2%
FCF Yield
2%
Debt / Equity
0.01x
Piotroski Score
7/9
Altman Z-Score
3.02
Market Cap
$85B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($25.64)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$25.64
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$19.23
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$43.40
DCF Fair Value
$25.63
-69.3% Premium
$1,681M
$100M$1,681M (Reported)$50,000M
14.6%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
-$3,300M (Net Cash)
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$19.3B
PV of Terminal Value
$27.6B
Implied Enterprise Value
$46.9B
Implied Equity Value
$50.2B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$1,926$2,208$2,530$2,899$3,323$3,472$3,628$3,792$3,962$4,141
Present Value (PV)$1,767$1,858$1,954$2,054$2,160$2,070$1,985$1,903$1,824$1,749

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-302.6% Premium
$10.78

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.08BVPS: $4.78
Revised Graham Formula-44.2% Premium
$30.10

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings1.9% Yield
$0.82 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.6BYield: 1.9%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER
18.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $43.40, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 18.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MNST with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Monster Beverage Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 29.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Monster Beverage Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Monster Beverage Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $25.64 per share compared to its current market price of $43.40. This represents an estimated 69.3% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $10.78.

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