What is Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Molina Healthcare, Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector (Healthcare Plans) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksMOH

MOH

Molina Healthcare IncHealthcare / Healthcare PlansINTACT

Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces in the United States. It operates through Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other segments. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.

Share Price

$204.23

52W: $121.06 - $244.89

DCF Fair Value

$349.86

+41.6% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

1276.4x

ROIC

Operating Margin

1.4%

FCF Yield

6.6%

Debt / Equity

0.95x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

9.43

Market Cap

$10.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$349.86

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$262.40

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($349.86) 25% MOS Buy Target ($262.40) Revised Graham ($2.42) Graham Number ($16.99)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$204.23

DCF Fair Value

$349.65

+41.6% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$700M

$100M$700M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$4,900M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$5.8B

PV of Terminal Value

$7.5B

Implied Enterprise Value

$13.3B

Implied Equity Value

$18.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$737	$776	$817	$861	$906	$947	$990	$1,034	$1,081	$1,129
Present Value (PV)	$676	$653	$631	$610	$589	$565	$541	$519	$498	$477

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-1102.1% Premium

$16.99

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $0.16BVPS: $80.21

Revised Graham Formula-8339.3% Premium

$2.42

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings6.3% Yield

$12.79 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.7BYield: 6.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

2.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $204.23, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 2.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MOH with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Molina Healthcare Inc. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 1.4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Molina Healthcare Inc.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Molina Healthcare Inc has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $349.86 per share compared to its current market price of $204.23. This represents an estimated 41.6% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $16.99.