NOC
Northrop Grumman CorporationIndustrials / Aerospace & DefenseINTACTNorthrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems. The Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, produces, integrates, sustains, and modernizes aircraft systems. This segment also offers unmanned autonomous aircraft systems, including high-altitude long-endurance strategic, surveillance and reconnaissance systems; and strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air dominance aircraft, and airborne battle management and command and control systems. Its Defense Systems segment designs, develops, integrates, and produces strategic deterrent systems, tactical weapons, and missile defense solutions; and provides sustainment, modernization, and training services for manned and unmanned aircraft and electronics systems. This segment also offers strategic missiles; integrated all-domain command and control systems; precision strike weapons; tactical solid rocket motors, and high-speed air-breathing and hypersonic systems; high-performance gun systems, ammunition, precision munitions, and advanced fuzes; and sustainment, operation, and modernization. The Mission Systems segment provides command, control, communication and computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems; radar, electro-optical/infrared, and acoustic sensors; electronic warfare systems; advanced communications and network systems; microelectronics; navigation and positioning sensors; maritime power, propulsion, and payload launch systems; cyber solutions; and intelligence processing systems. Its Space Systems segment offers satellites, spacecraft systems, subsystems, sensors, and payloads; ground systems; missile defense systems and interceptors; and launch vehicles and related propulsion systems. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Falls Church, Virginia.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Overvalued vs DCF ($234.31)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $2,622 | $2,774 | $2,935 | $3,105 | $3,285 | $3,433 | $3,587 | $3,749 | $3,917 | $4,094 |
| Present Value (PV) | $2,405 | $2,335 | $2,266 | $2,200 | $2,135 | $2,047 | $1,962 | $1,881 | $1,804 | $1,729 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
FAIR BARRIERAt the current price of $518.97, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 10.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil NOC with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for Northrop Grumman Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 11.6% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Northrop Grumman Corporation.
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