NOC

Northrop Grumman CorporationIndustrials / Aerospace & DefenseINTACT

Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems. The Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, produces, integrates, sustains, and modernizes aircraft systems. This segment also offers unmanned autonomous aircraft systems, including high-altitude long-endurance strategic, surveillance and reconnaissance systems; and strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air dominance aircraft, and airborne battle management and command and control systems. Its Defense Systems segment designs, develops, integrates, and produces strategic deterrent systems, tactical weapons, and missile defense solutions; and provides sustainment, modernization, and training services for manned and unmanned aircraft and electronics systems. This segment also offers strategic missiles; integrated all-domain command and control systems; precision strike weapons; tactical solid rocket motors, and high-speed air-breathing and hypersonic systems; high-performance gun systems, ammunition, precision munitions, and advanced fuzes; and sustainment, operation, and modernization. The Mission Systems segment provides command, control, communication and computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems; radar, electro-optical/infrared, and acoustic sensors; electronic warfare systems; advanced communications and network systems; microelectronics; navigation and positioning sensors; maritime power, propulsion, and payload launch systems; cyber solutions; and intelligence processing systems. Its Space Systems segment offers satellites, spacecraft systems, subsystems, sensors, and payloads; ground systems; missile defense systems and interceptors; and launch vehicles and related propulsion systems. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Falls Church, Virginia.

Share Price
$518.97
52W: $479.02 - $774
DCF Fair Value
$234.31
-121.5% Premium
P/E (TTM)
16.5x
ROIC
8.7%
Operating Margin
11.6%
FCF Yield
3.4%
Debt / Equity
0.95x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
3.86
Market Cap
$73.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($234.31)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$234.31
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$175.73
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$518.97
DCF Fair Value
$234.03
-121.8% Premium
$2,478M
$100M$2,478M (Reported)$50,000M
5.8%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$14,800M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$20.8B
PV of Terminal Value
$27.3B
Implied Enterprise Value
$48.0B
Implied Equity Value
$33.2B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$2,622$2,774$2,935$3,105$3,285$3,433$3,587$3,749$3,917$4,094
Present Value (PV)$2,405$2,335$2,266$2,200$2,135$2,047$1,962$1,881$1,804$1,729

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-73.9% Premium
$298.47

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $31.45BVPS: $125.89
Revised Graham Formula-4.7% Premium
$495.86

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings3.2% Yield
$16.58 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.4BYield: 3.2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
10.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $518.97, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 10.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil NOC with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Northrop Grumman Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 11.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Northrop Grumman Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Northrop Grumman Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $234.31 per share compared to its current market price of $518.97. This represents an estimated 121.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $298.47.

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