What is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector (Trucking) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksODFL

ODFL

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.Industrials / TruckingINTACT

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload motor carrier in the United States and North America. The company offers regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services, as well as expedited transportation services. It also provides various value-added services, including container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting. In addition, the company operates fleet maintenance centers. As of December 31, 2025, it owned and operated 10,184 tractors, 30,824 linehaul trailers, and 14,313 pickup and delivery trailers. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.

Share Price

$179.79

52W: $126.01 - $252.03

DCF Fair Value

$130.89

-37.4% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

34.7x

ROIC

21.6%

Operating Margin

28.8%

FCF Yield

2.6%

Debt / Equity

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

3.14

Market Cap

$37.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($130.89)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$130.89

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$98.17

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($130.89) 25% MOS Buy Target ($98.17) Revised Graham ($142.92) Graham Number ($50.54)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$179.79

DCF Fair Value

$131.29

-36.9% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$971M

$100M$971M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)14.4%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$300M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$11.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$15.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$26.9B

Implied Equity Value

$27.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,111	$1,271	$1,454	$1,663	$1,903	$1,988	$2,078	$2,171	$2,269	$2,371
Present Value (PV)	$1,019	$1,070	$1,123	$1,178	$1,237	$1,186	$1,137	$1,090	$1,045	$1,002

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-255.7% Premium

$50.54

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $5.18BVPS: $21.92

Revised Graham Formula-25.8% Premium

$142.92

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.5% Yield

$4.46 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.9BYield: 2.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

14.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $179.79, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 14.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ODFL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 28.8% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $130.89 per share compared to its current market price of $179.79. This represents an estimated 37.4% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $50.54.