What is ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is ON Semiconductor Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

ON Semiconductor Corporation operates in the Technology sector (Semiconductors) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is ON Semiconductor Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

ON Semiconductor Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits ON Semiconductor Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksON

ON

ON Semiconductor CorporationTechnology / SemiconductorsINTACT

ON Semiconductor Corporation provides intelligent sensing and power solutions in Hong Kong, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Power Solutions Group, Analog and Mixed-Signal Group, and Intelligent Sensing Group. The Power Solutions Group segment offers discrete, module, and integrated semiconductor devices designed to enable power conversion, including power switching, signal conditioning, and circuit protection technologies. Its Analog and Mixed-Signal Group segment designs and develops analog and mixed-signal solutions, including power management, sensor interface, connectivity, and standard products for automotive, industrial automation, AI data centers, computing, and mobile end markets. The Intelligent Sensing Group segment develops complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor image sensors, image signal processors, short-wave infrared sensors, and other products, as well as photon-counting technologies, including single-photon avalanche diode arrays and silicon photomultiplier devices for depth sensing, factory automation, safety systems, and robotics industries. ON Semiconductor Corporation was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Share Price

$76.14

52W: $44.56 - $134.92

DCF Fair Value

$95.18

+20% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

49.8x

ROIC

14.6%

Operating Margin

19.5%

FCF Yield

5.6%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

9/9

Altman Z-Score

3.32

Market Cap

$29.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($76.14 vs $95.18 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$95.18

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$71.39

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($95.18) 25% MOS Buy Target ($71.39) Revised Graham ($32.40) Graham Number ($25.27)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$76.14

DCF Fair Value

$95.24

+20.1% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,657M

$100M$1,657M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)9.7%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$16.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$21.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$37.8B

Implied Equity Value

$37.0B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,818	$1,994	$2,187	$2,400	$2,632	$2,751	$2,875	$3,004	$3,139	$3,280
Present Value (PV)	$1,668	$1,678	$1,689	$1,700	$1,711	$1,640	$1,573	$1,508	$1,445	$1,386

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-201.4% Premium

$25.26

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.53BVPS: $18.54

Revised Graham Formula-135% Premium

$32.40

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings5.3% Yield

$4.05 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.6BYield: 5.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

4.2% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $76.14, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 4.2% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ON with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for ON Semiconductor Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 19.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for ON Semiconductor Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, ON Semiconductor Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $95.18 per share compared to its current market price of $76.14. This represents an estimated 20.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $25.27.