StocksPANW

PANW

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.Technology / Software - InfrastructureINTACT

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. provides artificial intelligence (AI) cybersecurity solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. It offers Prisma Access and Prisma SD-WAN, a secure access service edge solution; next-generation firewalls; Strata Cloud Manager, a network security infrastructure management solution; and Panorama, for policy management, device management, software licensing and updates, logging and reporting, and log storage. The company also provides Advanced Threat Prevention for intrusion detection and prevention; Advanced WildFire to protect against targeted malware and advanced persistent threats; Advanced URL Filtering; Advanced DNS Security to block malicious domains and stop attacks; Device Security; SaaS Security API, a multi-mode, cloud access security broker; SaaS Security Inline; GlobalProtect, a protection for laptop and mobile devices; Prisma Access Agent; Enterprise DLP, a protection for sensitive data; and AI Access Security to assess risk, detect anomalies, and visualize insights across multiple GenAI-specific attributes. In addition, it offers Prisma AIRS, an AI security platform; AI Gateway, a centralized AI security control plane; Agent Security for lifecycle security and governance; AI Red Teaming that validates the security of custom autonomous agents, applications, and models; AI Runtime and Model Security; and AI Posture Management. Further, the company provides Cortex platform for end-to-end security operations and observability. It also offers Privileged Access Management, Identity and Access Management, Endpoint Privilege Manager, Identity Governance, Workforce Password Management, Vendor Privileged Access, Secrets Management, Secrets Hub, Credential Providers, Secure AI Agents, Customer Support, Professional Services, and Threat Intelligence, Incident Response and Security Consulting. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Share Price
$330.65
52W: $139.57 - $398.88
DCF Fair Value
$104.53
-216.3% Premium
P/E (TTM)
287.5x
ROIC
8%
Operating Margin
5%
FCF Yield
1.7%
Debt / Equity
0.09x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
2.78
Market Cap
$270.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($104.53)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$104.53
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$78.40
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$330.65
DCF Fair Value
$104.42
-216.7% Premium
$4,470M
$100M$4,470M (Reported)$50,000M
5.3%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
-$600M (Net Cash)
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$36.8B
PV of Terminal Value
$48.0B
Implied Enterprise Value
$84.8B
Implied Equity Value
$85.4B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$4,707$4,956$5,219$5,496$5,787$6,047$6,319$6,604$6,901$7,212
Present Value (PV)$4,318$4,172$4,030$3,893$3,761$3,606$3,457$3,314$3,177$3,046

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-1020.5% Premium
$29.51

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.15BVPS: $33.65
Revised Graham Formula-1801.4% Premium
$17.39

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings1.6% Yield
$5.19 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $4.2BYield: 1.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER
20.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $330.65, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 20.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil PANW with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Palo Alto Networks, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Palo Alto Networks, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Palo Alto Networks, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $104.53 per share compared to its current market price of $330.65. This represents an estimated 216.3% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $29.51.

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