StocksPCAR

PCAR

PACCAR Inc.Industrials / Farm & Heavy Construction MachineryINTACT

PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Europe, Central and South America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment designs, manufactures, and distributes trucks for the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of commercial and consumer goods; and diesel engine products. It sells its trucks through a network of independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The Parts segment distributes aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment conducts full-service leasing operations under the PacLease trade name, as well as provides finance and leasing products and services to customers and dealers. This segment offers equipment financing and administrative support services for its franchisees; retail loan and leasing services for small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators and other businesses; and truck inventory financing services to independent dealers. In addition, this segment offers loans and leases directly to customers for the acquisition of trucks and related equipment; and operates its own full-service lease outlets. The company manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates. PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.

Share Price
$122.73
52W: $92.25 - $139.24
DCF Fair Value
$60.52
-102.8% Premium
P/E (TTM)
25.8x
ROIC
9%
Operating Margin
12%
FCF Yield
3%
Debt / Equity
0.73x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
3.69
Market Cap
$64.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($60.52)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$60.52
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$45.39
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$122.73
DCF Fair Value
$60.65
-102.3% Premium
$1,944M
$100M$1,944M (Reported)$50,000M
6.0%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$6,100M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$16.4B
PV of Terminal Value
$21.6B
Implied Enterprise Value
$38.0B
Implied Equity Value
$31.9B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$2,061$2,184$2,315$2,454$2,602$2,719$2,841$2,969$3,102$3,242
Present Value (PV)$1,891$1,838$1,788$1,739$1,691$1,621$1,554$1,490$1,428$1,369

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-90.9% Premium
$64.30

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $4.76BVPS: $38.61
Revised Graham Formula-60.7% Premium
$76.36

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings2.9% Yield
$3.51 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.8BYield: 2.9%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
12.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $122.73, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 12.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil PCAR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for PACCAR Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 12% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for PACCAR Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, PACCAR Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $60.52 per share compared to its current market price of $122.73. This represents an estimated 102.8% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $64.30.

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