POST
Post Holdings, Inc.Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsINTACTPost Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail segments. The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereals under Honey Bunches of Oats, Pebbles, and Malt-O-Meal brands; hot cereal; peanut butter under the Peter Pan brand; and branded and private label pet food under Rachael Ray Nutrish, Nature's Recipe, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bits and Gravy Train brands. The Weetabix segment manufactures, markets, and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal under Weetabix and Alpen brands; hot cereals and other cereal-based food products; private label cereals; and protein-based shakes under the UFIT brand, and nutritional snacks. The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg products primarily under Papetti's and Abbotsford Farms brands, as well as potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels. The segment also manufactures certain meat products. The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dish, potato, sausage products under Bob Evans, Bob Evans Farms, and Simply Potatoes brands; eggs and egg products under Bob Evans Egg Whites and Egg Beaters brands; and cheese and other dairy products under Crystal Farms brand. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, dollar stores, discounters, wholesalers, convenience stores, pet supply retailers, drug store customers, foodservice distributors, and national restaurant chains, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels. The company was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Overvalued vs DCF ($3.07)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $416 | $438 | $461 | $486 | $511 | $534 | $558 | $584 | $610 | $637 |
| Present Value (PV) | $382 | $369 | $356 | $344 | $332 | $319 | $305 | $293 | $281 | $269 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
EXTREMELY LOW BARRIERAt the current price of $80.19, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -4.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil POST with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for Post Holdings, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 10.3% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Post Holdings, Inc..
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