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POST

Post Holdings, Inc.Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsINTACT

Post Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail segments. The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereals under Honey Bunches of Oats, Pebbles, and Malt-O-Meal brands; hot cereal; peanut butter under the Peter Pan brand; and branded and private label pet food under Rachael Ray Nutrish, Nature's Recipe, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bits and Gravy Train brands. The Weetabix segment manufactures, markets, and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal under Weetabix and Alpen brands; hot cereals and other cereal-based food products; private label cereals; and protein-based shakes under the UFIT brand, and nutritional snacks. The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg products primarily under Papetti's and Abbotsford Farms brands, as well as potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels. The segment also manufactures certain meat products. The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dish, potato, sausage products under Bob Evans, Bob Evans Farms, and Simply Potatoes brands; eggs and egg products under Bob Evans Egg Whites and Egg Beaters brands; and cheese and other dairy products under Crystal Farms brand. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, dollar stores, discounters, wholesalers, convenience stores, pet supply retailers, drug store customers, foodservice distributors, and national restaurant chains, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels. The company was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

Share Price
$80.19
52W: $75.4 - $117.28
DCF Fair Value
$3.07
-2512.1% Premium
P/E (TTM)
14.6x
ROIC
8%
Operating Margin
10.3%
FCF Yield
10.9%
Debt / Equity
2.47x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
3.22
Market Cap
$3.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($3.07)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$3.07
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$2.30
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$80.19
DCF Fair Value
$4.32
-1754.4% Premium
$395M
$100M$395M (Reported)$50,000M
5.3%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$7,300M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$3.2B
PV of Terminal Value
$4.2B
Implied Enterprise Value
$7.5B
Implied Equity Value
$0.2B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$416$438$461$486$511$534$558$584$610$637
Present Value (PV)$382$369$356$344$332$319$305$293$281$269

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+13.9%
$93.09

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $5.50BVPS: $70.02
Revised Graham Formula+3.6%
$83.19

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings10.4% Yield
$8.34 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.4BYield: 10.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER
-4.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $80.19, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -4.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil POST with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Post Holdings, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 10.3% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Post Holdings, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Post Holdings, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $3.07 per share compared to its current market price of $80.19. This represents an estimated 2512.1% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $93.09.

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