What is Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Simon Property Group, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Simon Property Group, Inc. operates in the Real Estate sector (REIT - Retail) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Simon Property Group, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Simon Property Group, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Simon Property Group, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksSPG

SPG

Simon Property Group, Inc.Real Estate / REIT - RetailINTACT

Simon Property Group, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). Simon Property Group, L.P., or the Operating Partnership, is our majority-owned partnership subsidiary that owns all of our real estate properties and other assets. In this package, the terms Simon, we, our, or the Company refer to Simon Property Group, Inc., the Operating Partnership, and its subsidiaries. We own, develop and manage premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations, which consist primarily of malls, Premium Outlets, The Mills, and International Properties. At December 31, 2024, we owned or had an interest in 229 properties comprising 183 million square feet in North America, Asia and Europe. We also owned an 88% interest in The Taubman Realty Group, or TRG, which owns 22 regional, super-regional, and outlet malls in the U.S. and Asia. Additionally, at December 31, 2024, we had a 22.4% ownership interest in Klepierre, a publicly traded, Paris-based real estate company, which owns shopping centers in 14 European countries. Simon Property Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1960 and is based in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Share Price

$204.83

52W: $172.19 - $238.5

DCF Fair Value

$168.31

-21.7% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

14.5x

ROIC

34.5%

Operating Margin

46%

FCF Yield

3.3%

Debt / Equity

5.04x

Piotroski Score

5/9

Altman Z-Score

2.48

Market Cap

$77.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($168.31)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$168.31

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$126.23

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($168.31) 25% MOS Buy Target ($126.23) Revised Graham ($499.73) Graham Number ($65.78)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$204.83

DCF Fair Value

$168.14

-21.8% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$2,595M

$100M$2,595M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$28,400M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$33.6B

PV of Terminal Value

$49.3B

Implied Enterprise Value

$82.9B

Implied Equity Value

$54.5B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$3,062	$3,613	$4,264	$5,031	$5,937	$6,204	$6,483	$6,775	$7,080	$7,398
Present Value (PV)	$2,809	$3,041	$3,292	$3,564	$3,858	$3,699	$3,546	$3,400	$3,260	$3,125

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-211.4% Premium

$65.78

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $14.16BVPS: $13.58

Revised Graham Formula+59% MoS

$499.73

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3.7% Yield

$7.61 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.5BYield: 3.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

8.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $204.83, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 8.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil SPG with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Simon Property Group, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 46% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Track SPG & Set Alerts Browse S&P 500 Coverage

Frequently Asked Questions: Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Simon Property Group, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Simon Property Group, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $168.31 per share compared to its current market price of $204.83. This represents an estimated 21.7% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $65.78.