What is Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Steel Dynamics, Inc. operates in the Basic Materials sector (Steel) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksSTLD

STLD

Steel Dynamics, Inc.Basic Materials / SteelINTACT

Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot rolled, cold rolled, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing steel bars, standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars; channels, angles, flats, merchant rounds, and reinforcing steel bars; and specialty shapes and light structural steel products. This segment also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agricultural equipment, energy, and pipe and tube markets. The Metals Recycling Operations segment is involved in the ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal processing, transportation, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces steel non-residential building components, such as steel joists, joist girders, and steel deck products for non-residential steel fabricators, metal building companies, general construction contractors, developers, property owners, brokers, and governmental entities. The Aluminum Operations segment offers recycled aluminum flat rolled products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Share Price

$239.79

52W: $129.41 - $288.74

DCF Fair Value

$4.86

-4834% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

21.7x

ROIC

8.6%

Operating Margin

11.5%

FCF Yield

0.7%

Debt / Equity

0.47x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.9

Market Cap

$34.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($4.86)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$4.86

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$3.65

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($4.86) 25% MOS Buy Target ($3.65) Revised Graham ($172.90) Graham Number ($127.59)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$239.79

DCF Fair Value

$5.01

-4686.4% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$234M

$100M$234M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.7%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$3,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$2.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$2.6B

Implied Enterprise Value

$4.5B

Implied Equity Value

$0.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$247	$261	$276	$292	$309	$323	$337	$352	$368	$385
Present Value (PV)	$227	$220	$213	$207	$201	$192	$184	$177	$170	$163

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-88% Premium

$127.58

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $11.03BVPS: $65.59

Revised Graham Formula-38.7% Premium

$172.90

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings0.6% Yield

$1.55 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.2BYield: 0.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER

32.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $239.79, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 32.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil STLD with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Steel Dynamics, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 11.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Steel Dynamics, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Steel Dynamics, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $4.86 per share compared to its current market price of $239.79. This represents an estimated 4834.0% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $127.59.