STZ
Constellation Brands, Inc.Consumer Defensive / Beverages - BrewersINTACTConstellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Sunbrew, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Spiked Aguas Frescas, Modelo Oro, Modelo Noche Especial, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brand names. The company also offers wine under the Sea Smoke, Schrader Cellars, Kim Crawford, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, and The Prisoner Wine Company brand names; and spirits under the Casa Noble, High West, Mi CAMPO, and Nelson's Green Brier brand names. It provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $2,606 | $3,072 | $3,622 | $4,270 | $5,035 | $5,261 | $5,498 | $5,745 | $6,004 | $6,274 |
| Present Value (PV) | $2,390 | $2,586 | $2,797 | $3,025 | $3,272 | $3,137 | $3,008 | $2,883 | $2,764 | $2,650 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
EXTREMELY LOW BARRIERAt the current price of $122.45, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -4.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil STZ with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for Constellation Brands, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 35.9% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Constellation Brands, Inc..
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