What is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector (Tools & Accessories) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksSWK

SWK

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.Industrials / Tools & AccessoriesINTACT

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. provides hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and related accessories in the United States, Canada, Other Americas, Europe, and Asia. Its Tools & Outdoor segment offers professional grade corded and cordless electric power tools and equipment, including drills, impact wrenches and drivers, grinders, saws, routers, concrete prep and placement tools, and sanders; pneumatic tools and fasteners; corded and cordless electric power tools; household power tools, hand-held vacuums, and small appliances; leveling and layout tools, planes, hammers, demolition tools, clamps, vises, knives, saws, chisels, and industrial and automotive tools; drill, screwdriver, router bits, abrasives, saw blades, and threading products; tool boxes, sawhorses, medical cabinets, and engineered storage solutions; and electric and gas-powered lawn and garden products. This segment sells its products under the DEWALT, CRAFTSMAN, CUB ADET, STANLEY, BLACK+DECKER, and HUSTLER brands through retailers, third-party distributors, independent dealers, and a direct sales force. Its Industrial segment provides threaded fasteners, blind rivets and tools, blind inserts and tools, drawn arc weld studs and systems, engineered plastic and mechanical fasteners, self-piercing riveting systems, precision nut running systems, micro fasteners, high-strength structural fasteners, axel swage, latches, heat shields, pins, couplings, fitting, and other engineered products. This segment sells its products through direct sales force and third-party distributors to the automotive, manufacturing, electronics, construction, aerospace, and other industries. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. has a strategic partnership with I4F Licensing Nv. The company was formerly known as The Stanley Works and changed its name to Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. in March 2010. The company was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in New Britain, Connecticut.

Share Price

$89.24

52W: $61.9 - $104.68

DCF Fair Value

$147.95

+39.7% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

21.8x

ROIC

Operating Margin

8.4%

FCF Yield

10.5%

Debt / Equity

0.58x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

4.24

Market Cap

$13.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$147.95

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$110.96

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($147.95) 25% MOS Buy Target ($110.96) Revised Graham ($61.86) Graham Number ($73.89)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$89.24

DCF Fair Value

$147.84

+39.6% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,419M

$100M$1,419M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$4,600M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$11.7B

PV of Terminal Value

$15.2B

Implied Enterprise Value

$26.9B

Implied Equity Value

$22.3B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,494	$1,573	$1,657	$1,745	$1,837	$1,920	$2,006	$2,096	$2,191	$2,289
Present Value (PV)	$1,371	$1,324	$1,279	$1,236	$1,194	$1,145	$1,097	$1,052	$1,009	$967

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-20.8% Premium

$73.89

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $4.09BVPS: $59.33

Revised Graham Formula-44.3% Premium

$61.86

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings10% Yield

$8.93 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.3BYield: 10%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-4.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $89.24, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -4.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil SWK with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 8.4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Stanley Black & Decker, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $147.95 per share compared to its current market price of $89.24. This represents an estimated 39.7% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $73.89.