TGT
Target CorporationConsumer Defensive / Discount StoresINTACTTarget Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products. The company also provides food and beverage products comprising dry and perishable grocery, including snacks, candy, beverages, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and food service; electronics which includes video games and consoles, toys, sporting goods, entertainment, and luggage; bed and bath, home décor, school/office supplies, storage, small appliances, kitchenware, greeting cards, party supplies, furniture, lighting, home improvement, and seasonal merchandise; and household essentials, such as household cleaning, paper products, over-the-counter healthcare, vitamins and supplements, baby gear, and pet supplies. In addition, it sells merchandise through periodic design and creative partnerships, and shop-in-shop experience; and in-store amenities. The company sells its products through its stores; and digital channels, including Target.com. Target Corporation was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Overvalued vs DCF ($113.24)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $3,615 | $3,807 | $4,008 | $4,221 | $4,444 | $4,644 | $4,853 | $5,072 | $5,300 | $5,539 |
| Present Value (PV) | $3,316 | $3,204 | $3,095 | $2,990 | $2,889 | $2,769 | $2,655 | $2,545 | $2,440 | $2,340 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
MODEST BARRIERAt the current price of $155.83, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 6.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil TGT with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for Target Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 6% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: Target Corporation (TGT) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Target Corporation.
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