What is APA Corporation (APA) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

APA Corporation (APA) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is APA Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

APA Corporation operates in the Energy sector (Oil & Gas E&P) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is APA Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

APA Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor APA Corporation (APA) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits APA Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAPA

APA

APA CorporationEnergy / Oil & Gas E&PINTACT

APA Corporation, an independent energy company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. The company has oil and gas operations in the United States, Egypt, and North Sea. It also has exploration and appraisal activities in Suriname, as well as holds interests in projects located in Uruguay and internationally. APA Corporation was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Share Price

$44.73

52W: $21.63 - $46.1

DCF Fair Value

$185.90

+75.9% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

9.4x

ROIC

42.2%

Operating Margin

56.3%

FCF Yield

13.7%

Debt / Equity

0.49x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

4.99

Market Cap

$15.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$185.90

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$139.43

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($185.90) 25% MOS Buy Target ($139.43) Revised Graham ($167.28) Graham Number ($46.21)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$44.73

DCF Fair Value

$185.91

+75.9% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$2,147M

$100M$2,147M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$3,500M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$27.8B

PV of Terminal Value

$40.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$68.6B

Implied Equity Value

$65.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,533	$2,989	$3,528	$4,163	$4,912	$5,133	$5,364	$5,605	$5,857	$6,121
Present Value (PV)	$2,324	$2,516	$2,724	$2,949	$3,192	$3,061	$2,934	$2,813	$2,697	$2,586

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+3.2%

$46.21

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $4.74BVPS: $20.02

Revised Graham Formula+73.3% MoS

$167.28

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings13% Yield

$5.83 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.0BYield: 13%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-8.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $44.73, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -8.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil APA with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for APA Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 56.3% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: APA Corporation (APA) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for APA Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, APA Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $185.90 per share compared to its current market price of $44.73. This represents an estimated 75.9% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $46.21.