What is Chevron Corporation (CVX) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Chevron Corporation (CVX) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Chevron Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Chevron Corporation operates in the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Integrated) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Chevron Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Chevron Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Chevron Corporation (CVX) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Chevron Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksCVX

CVX

Chevron CorporationEnergy / Oil & Gas IntegratedINTACT

Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations. It operates through Upstream and Downstream segments. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration for, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification of liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and operation of a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The company operates in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in May 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Share Price

$214.06

52W: $146.49 - $217.4

DCF Fair Value

$254.23

+15.8%

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

20.6x

ROIC

16.4%

Operating Margin

21.9%

FCF Yield

5.2%

Debt / Equity

0.19x

Piotroski Score

9/9

Altman Z-Score

3.93

Market Cap

$419.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($214.06 vs $254.23 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$254.23

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$190.67

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($254.23) 25% MOS Buy Target ($190.67) Revised Graham ($236.92) Graham Number ($150.36)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$214.06

DCF Fair Value

$253.78

+15.7%

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$21,934M

$100M$21,934M (Reported)$54,835M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)10.9%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$28,600M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$221.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$305.4B

Implied Enterprise Value

$526.5B

Implied Equity Value

$497.9B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$24,325	$26,976	$29,917	$33,178	$36,794	$38,450	$40,180	$41,988	$43,877	$45,852
Present Value (PV)	$22,316	$22,705	$23,101	$23,504	$23,914	$22,926	$21,980	$21,072	$20,202	$19,368

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-42.4% Premium

$150.36

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $10.38BVPS: $96.80

Revised Graham Formula+9.6%

$236.92

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings5% Yield

$10.62 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $20.8BYield: 5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

5.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $214.06, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 5.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil CVX with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Chevron Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 21.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Chevron Corporation (CVX) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Chevron Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Chevron Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $254.23 per share compared to its current market price of $214.06. This represents an estimated 15.8% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $150.36.